May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026: The Yes price for 22°C surged from 24c to a peak of 45c, while the 20°C option dropped from 18.5c to as low as 7c. This is due to the latest high-frequency weather forecast models revising the expected high temperature upwards by about 1-2 degrees Celsius as the resolution day approaches. May 10, 2026 - May 12, 2026: No price movement exceeding 10 cents was observed. The market remained relatively stable.

Betting on the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is quite niche for the general public, as nobody thinks about this daily; however, it is a standard and somewhat entertaining weather-data market within prediction platforms.

May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026, the prices of the 16°C, 17°C, and 18°C options all experienced sharp fluctuations exceeding 10 cents (e.g., 17°C dropped from 37c to 20c before bouncing back to 31c, and 16°C fell from 30c to 12.5c before recovering). The reason is that, as the resolution date approaches, meteorological models have fine-tuned their predictions regarding the exact timing and intensity of rainfall, prompting short-term traders to frequently rebalance their positions among adjacent temperature ranges. No violent price movements exceeding 10 cents were observed over the last 3 days prior to the recent shifts. The temperature prediction market typically makes gentle adjustments as weather forecasts converge.

The title asks for the highest temperature in 'Seoul', but the rules explicitly specify using data from the 'Incheon Intl Airport Station (RKSI)'. Incheon Airport is located on an island, and its temperatures can differ significantly from central Seoul, creating a major trap for participants. Additionally, the rounding to whole degrees Celsius is a crucial detail.

The requirement that an event must be 'part of this summit' and have 'officials from both... governments' present could create ambiguity. Non-government individuals (like CEOs or family members) might attend sideline closed-door meetings or dinners where official summit status is debatable, and verifying exact attendance in private settings can be difficult.

May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026, Jared Kushner's price surged from 45c to 70c, likely due to further unofficial confirmations regarding his role as an envoy or advisor in the US-China summit delegation. May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026, Steve Witkoff's price briefly dropped from 5.5c to 2.5c before rebounding to 16.4c, indicating market divergence or speculation regarding his inclusion in the delegation. On May 12, 2026, Melania Trump's price collapsed from 96c to around 2.5c, likely due to official confirmation that the First Lady will not travel to the summit. On May 12, 2026, Jared Kushner's price surged from 7c to 45c, indicating increased speculation or news of him serving as an unofficial envoy. On May 11, 2026, Mark Zuckerberg's price dropped from 47c to below 10c, and Steve Witkoff dropped from 48c to under 20c, as initial itinerary leaks or delegation lists excluded them.

The biggest rule trap is that a delay in the CDC report publication triggers an automatic resolution to the lowest bracket, rather than an extension or void. Additionally, traders must strictly use the official cumulative rate; any models, estimates, or state-level reports are invalid.

This is a relatively specialized public health metric. While infectious disease tracking has become more common in prediction markets post-COVID, the general public does not typically focus on or speculate about the exact flu hospitalization rate for a specific week.