All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Vitality
YesNo
Natus Vincere
YesNo
Mouz
YesNo
Furia
YesNo
The MongolZ
YesNo
Team Spirit
YesNo
Parivision
YesNo
Team Falcons
YesNo
9z
YesNo
Ninjas in Pyjamas
YesNo
Aurora
YesNo
Tyloo
YesNo
NRG
YesNo
B8
YesNo
Team Liquid
YesNo
FaZe
YesNo
AI Insights:
7 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although the tournament is imminent or starting (March 18), the market pricing for Vitality (42.5c) remains irrationally high. In top-tier CS2 tournaments, a single team having an implied win probability of over 40% defies statistical norms; a fair range would be around 25%. The deepest value pockets remain Natus Vincere (7c) and Mouz (6.5c). While NAVI crashed previously, a 7% win rate severely undervalues a top-tier team, suggesting the market is slowly correcting from an overreaction to unconfirmed negative news. FaZe's price (0.95c) is extremely low, likely implying the market believes they are eliminated or facing major issues, so their fair value is adjusted to 1c to respect this strong signal. Team Spirit (15.5c) is relatively fairly priced.
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Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream CS2 competitive consensus views the current landscape as highly competitive, with teams like Spirit, Mouz, Vitality, and NAVI being close in strength. However, the prediction market is pricing Vitality (42.5%) as a dominant force, with an implied win rate nearly equaling the sum of all other top contenders, which sharply contradicts HLTV rankings and recent performance data. Additionally, the extremely low pricing of NAVI (7%) and Mouz (6.5%) suggests the market is completely ignoring the championship potential of these top-5 ranked teams.
