Politics|$197.1k Vol|
199 days 6 hrsBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
YesNo
Fernando Haddad
YesNo
Ratinho Júnior
YesNo
Flávio Bolsonaro
YesNo
Romeu Zema
YesNo
Geraldo Alckmin
YesNo
Tarcisio de Freitas
YesNo
Ronaldo Caiado
YesNo
Eduardo Bolsonaro
YesNo
Camilo Santana
YesNo
Renan Santos
YesNo
Michelle Bolsonaro
YesNo
Jair Bolsonaro
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.14 21:24 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although Lula retains a lead in first-round polls (~35-40%), making Flávio Bolsonaro the most probable runner-up (polling ~26-30%), new polls from Datafolha and Quaest (March 12-13, 2026) indicate a significant tightening of the race, showing a 'statistical tie' in runoff simulations. This trend increases the probability of Flávio outperforming in the first round to potentially take 1st place, thereby raising the chance of Lula finishing 2nd. The current market price of 19c for Lula underestimates the risk posed by this 'tightening race' narrative, while Flávio's 72.5c slightly overprices the certainty of the ranking order. Ratinho Júnior remains the only viable 'third way' contender (polling ~10-15%) and warrants a single-digit valuation.
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Hedging
EWZ
PBR
The Brazilian presidential election has a major impact on the country's financial markets. Determining the second-place finisher in the first round effectively dictates the runoff matchup. Strong performance by polarizing candidates could trigger significant volatility in Brazilian equities (EWZ ETF) and state-owned enterprises (Petrobras - PBR). The market outcome directly correlates with political risk pricing in Brazilian assets.
Movers
March 13, 2026 - March 14, 2026, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's price spiked from 19c to 30c before quickly correcting back to 19c. This was triggered by Datafolha and Quaest polls released on March 12 showing a shrinking gap (statistical tie) between Lula and Flávio, causing a momentary panic buy of Lula as a potential '2nd place' finisher, followed by a market correction recognizing Lula's continued first-round lead.
March 13, 2026 - March 14, 2026, Flávio Bolsonaro's price dipped ~10c and recovered to 72.5c, inversely correlating with Lula's volatility.
February 28, 2026 - March 5, 2026, Fernando Haddad's price rose from 1c to ~7c, indicating increased speculative betting on the tail risk of Lula withdrawing.
February 28, 2026 - March 4, 2026, Ratinho Júnior's price briefly touched 11c before falling back to 7c, reflecting momentary market testing of alternative right-wing candidates.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream media and recent polls (Datafolha, Quaest, March 12) emphasize that the race has entered a 'technical tie' or tightened significantly, suggesting the distinction between 1st and 2nd place is becoming more uncertain (closer to 50/50). However, the prediction market pricing implies a very high probability (>80%) of Lula taking 1st place, assigning only a 19% chance to him dropping to 2nd. The market appears much more confident in Lula's first-round dominance than the polling data suggests.
