[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'Bulgaria Presidential Election'. Given the low liquidity of $36k, critically analyze the bid-ask spreads for top candidates like Boyko Borissov and Vassil Terziev. Combine this with the political context of Bulgaria's frequent government turnovers to assess if the current odds distribution adequately reflects the risk of a 'dark horse' candidate (assessing the value of the 'Other' option).

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'Bulgaria Presidential Election'. Given the low liquidity of $36k, critically analyze the bid-ask spreads for top candidates like Boyko Borissov and Vassil Terziev. Combine this with the political context of Bulgaria's frequent government turnovers to assess if the current odds distribution adequately reflects the risk of a 'dark horse' candidate (assessing the value of the 'Other' option).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest 2026 presidential election intention surveys from authoritative Bulgarian pollsters (e.g., Alpha Research, Gallup International Balkan, or Market Links). Specifically compare the support ratings of frontrunners (such as GERB's potential candidate Rosen Zhelyazkov or a successor endorsed by incumbent President Radev) with current Polymarket odds to identify any significant 'arbitrage space caused by information lag'.

AI-powered analysis for: [Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest 2026 presidential election intention surveys from authoritative Bulgarian pollsters (e.g., Alpha Research, Gallup International Balkan, or Market Links). Specifically compare the support ratings of frontrunners (such as GERB's potential candidate Rosen Zhelyazkov or a successor endorsed by incumbent President Radev) with current Polymarket odds to identify any significant 'arbitrage space caused by information lag'.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: This prediction market resolves on November 30, 2026 (approximately 9 months from now). Calculate whether the potential ROI of buying a favorite candidate (like Iliana Iotova) now significantly outperforms the risk-free return of holding stablecoins in DeFi protocols (e.g., USDC APY on Aave/Compound) over the same 9-month lock-up period. If the premium is too low, should the bet be avoided?

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: This prediction market resolves on November 30, 2026 (approximately 9 months from now). Calculate whether the potential ROI of buying a favorite candidate (like Iliana Iotova) now significantly outperforms the risk-free return of holding stablecoins in DeFi protocols (e.g., USDC APY on Aave/Compound) over the same 9-month lock-up period. If the premium is too low, should the bet be avoided?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Elections|$3,411 Vol|

256 days 4 hrs

Bulgaria Presidential Election - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Iliana Iotova

YesNo

38.5¢

61.5¢

45¢

55¢

+6.5¢

0¢

Rosen Plevneliev

YesNo

6.9¢

93.1¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+5.9¢

Rosen Zhelyazkov

YesNo

13.5¢

86.5¢

8¢

92¢

0¢

+5.5¢

Atanas Atanasov

YesNo

5.75¢

94.25¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+3.7¢

Yanaki Stoilov

YesNo

6.35¢

93.65¢

10¢

90¢

+3.7¢

0¢

Nikolai Denkov

YesNo

17.5¢

82.5¢

20¢

80¢

+2.5¢

0¢

Natalia Kiselova

YesNo

4.85¢

95.15¢

7¢

93¢

+2.2¢

0¢

Kostadin Kostadinov

YesNo

2.65¢

97.35¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+1.6¢

Blagomir Kotsev

YesNo

6.9¢

93.1¢

6¢

94¢

0¢

+0.9¢

Delyan Peevski

YesNo

1.65¢

98.35¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+0.6¢

Boyko Borissov

YesNo

5.45¢

94.55¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+0.4¢

Vassil Terziev

YesNo

6.4¢

93.6¢

6¢

94¢

0¢

+0.4¢

Krum Zarkov

YesNo

1.1¢

98.9¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+0.1¢

AI Insights:

03.11 02:43 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Based on the simulated timeline of March 2026, Iliana Iotova, now the incumbent President (following Radev's resignation), holds significant institutional advantage and visibility. Her current market price of 38.5c is slightly undervalued; fair value sits around 45c. Nikolai Denkov (18.5c) has seen recent price appreciation, consolidating his status as the primary reformist (PP-DB) challenger, justifying a ~20c valuation. Rosen Plevneliev's crash from 16c to 1.7c indicates the market considers him effectively out of the race. Blagomir Kotsev has similarly faced a massive sell-off, reflecting collapsing campaign prospects.

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Movers

March 06, 2026 - March 10, 2026, Rosen Plevneliev's price collapsed from 16c to 1.7c (~90% drop) as the market priced in his probable withdrawal from consideration or explicit refusal to run, leading to a rapid exodus of speculative capital. Feb 09, 2026 - Feb 11, 2026, Rosen Zhelyazkov's price dropped from 16c to 10c due to his diminished viability following his failed government mandate in Jan and lingering anti-GERB protests.

Bulgaria Presidential Election - AI Odds Analysis

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