[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'Bulgaria Presidential Election'. Given the low liquidity of $36k, critically analyze the bid-ask spreads for top candidates like Boyko Borissov and Vassil Terziev. Combine this with the political context of Bulgaria's frequent government turnovers to assess if the current odds distribution adequately reflects the risk of a 'dark horse' candidate (assessing the value of the 'Other' option).

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'Bulgaria Presidential Election'. Given the low liquidity of $36k, critically analyze the bid-ask spreads for top candidates like Boyko Borissov and Vassil Terziev. Combine this with the political context of Bulgaria's frequent government turnovers to assess if the current odds distribution adequately reflects the risk of a 'dark horse' candidate (assessing the value of the 'Other' option).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest 2026 presidential election intention surveys from authoritative Bulgarian pollsters (e.g., Alpha Research, Gallup International Balkan, or Market Links). Specifically compare the support ratings of frontrunners (such as GERB's potential candidate Rosen Zhelyazkov or a successor endorsed by incumbent President Radev) with current Polymarket odds to identify any significant 'arbitrage space caused by information lag'.

AI-powered analysis for: [Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest 2026 presidential election intention surveys from authoritative Bulgarian pollsters (e.g., Alpha Research, Gallup International Balkan, or Market Links). Specifically compare the support ratings of frontrunners (such as GERB's potential candidate Rosen Zhelyazkov or a successor endorsed by incumbent President Radev) with current Polymarket odds to identify any significant 'arbitrage space caused by information lag'.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: This prediction market resolves on November 30, 2026 (approximately 9 months from now). Calculate whether the potential ROI of buying a favorite candidate (like Iliana Iotova) now significantly outperforms the risk-free return of holding stablecoins in DeFi protocols (e.g., USDC APY on Aave/Compound) over the same 9-month lock-up period. If the premium is too low, should the bet be avoided?

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: This prediction market resolves on November 30, 2026 (approximately 9 months from now). Calculate whether the potential ROI of buying a favorite candidate (like Iliana Iotova) now significantly outperforms the risk-free return of holding stablecoins in DeFi protocols (e.g., USDC APY on Aave/Compound) over the same 9-month lock-up period. If the premium is too low, should the bet be avoided?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Elections|$85.6k Vol|

211 days 0 hrs

Bulgaria Presidential Election - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.01 05:57

Top Undervalued

+5¢

Nikolai Denkov(Yes)

+4.5¢

Iliana Iotova(No)

+1.8¢

Boyko Borissov(Yes)

Bulgaria Presidential Election AI analysis: • +5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Iliana Iotova, as the incumbent Vice President and a staunch ally of Radev, maintains a steady lead;...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Nikolai Denkov

YesNo

14¢

86¢

19¢

81¢

+5¢

0¢

Iliana Iotova

YesNo

54.5¢

45.5¢

50¢

0¢

+4.5¢

Expand to view all 13 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

April 27, 2026 - April 29, 2026, Kostadin Kostadinov's price spiked from 0.55c to 20.9c and then crashed back to 1.2c, driven by brief market hype and speculative inflows that quickly corrected. April 10, 2026 - April 15, 2026, Boyko Borissov's price steadily declined from 11.25c to 4.5c, as the market increasingly priced in the likelihood that he will not run for president personally, yielding to other party figures like Rosen Zhelyazkov. March 20, 2026 - March 25, 2026, Atanas Atanasov's price collapsed from 13.9c to 3.2c as he visibly lost ground in the PP-DB coalition's internal race for the presidential nomination, with capital shifting towards Nikolai Denkov. March 06, 2026 - March 10, 2026, Rosen Plevneliev's price collapsed from 16c to 1.7c as the market priced in his probable withdrawal from consideration or explicit refusal to run, leading to a rapid exodus of speculative capital. Feb 09, 2026 - Feb 11, 2026, Rosen Zhelyazkov's price dropped from 16c to 10c due to his diminished viability following his failed government mandate in Jan and lingering anti-GERB protests.