All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
$40M
YesNo
$30M
YesNo
$20M
YesNo
$50M
YesNo
$70M
YesNo
$100M
YesNo
$150M
YesNo
$200M
YesNo
AI Insights:
17 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The primary pricing anchor is the recently concluded Token Sale (March 2026), which sources indicate hit its hard cap with a specific Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of $30M. Given the project's Tier-1 backing (Bitkraft, Sky Mavis) and substantial on-chain traction (>$150M volume in Duel Arena), high-profile GameFi tokens typically launch at a 2-5x multiple of their public sale price. The current prediction market pricing for $20M and $30M (trading at 28-50c) is severely undervalued, irrationally pricing in a high risk of 'no launch' or an immediate price collapse below the presale value. Assuming the scheduled June TGE occurs, the FDV is highly likely to exceed $30M.
Sign up to view more information
Rule Risk
There is moderate risk. The core definition relies on 'FDV' (Fully Diluted Valuation), which requires accurate total supply data that can be opaque or disputed at launch. Additionally, the 'most liquid price source' is slightly subjective; while typically DexScreener or Coingecko, early price volatility is high, and the specific timestamp (4:00 PM ET) pricing could be contentious.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. External sources confirm Cambria just completed a public sale at a $30M FDV with a TGE planned for June. However, prediction market pricing implies only a 28.5% probability of FDV > $30M. This suggests the market is incorrectly pricing in a >70% chance of the token failing to launch or collapsing below its presale price, which starkly contradicts recent funding news and project activity.
