All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
1.5–1.9%
YesNo
3.0-3.4%
YesNo
3.5-3.9%
YesNo
4.0%+
YesNo
2.5–2.9%
YesNo
2.0–2.4%
YesNo
1.0–1.4%
YesNo
<1.0%
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 00:29 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The February CPI data released on March 16, 2026, dropped significantly to 1.8% (prev. 2.3%), highlighting economic weakness (unemployment rising to 6.7%) and base effects. Although new geopolitical risks ('War in Iran') have led some analysts (e.g., BMO) to warn of headline inflation heading towards 3% due to oil shocks, the market's sell-off of high-inflation options (3.0%+) suggests investors are currently more concerned with recession than stagflation. While '2.0-2.4%' remains the gravitational center for the BoC target, the '1.5-1.9%' bucket is severely undervalued by the market (trading at only 4.5c) given the current 1.8% print and contractionary signals; its fair value should be closer to 20c. Tail risks are skewing towards the lower/recessionary side.
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Movers
March 13, 2026 - March 16, 2026, the price of '3.0-3.4%' crashed from 37c to 19.9c, and '1.5–1.9%' dropped from 13c to 4.5c. The reason is the release of Canada's February CPI on March 16, which came in cold at 1.8%. This lower-than-expected print crushed the high-inflation speculation that had built up around recent geopolitical tensions (Iran), causing a mass exodus from high-inflation bets. Simultaneously, the market experienced a liquidity 'froth removal' post-release, causing premiums across multiple buckets, including the plausible '1.5-1.9%' range, to contract significantly.
Divergence
A dual divergence exists. First, mainstream economists (e.g., Douglas Porter at BMO) recently warned that surging oil prices due to the war in Iran could push headline inflation towards 3% in the coming months, yet the prediction market aggressively sold off the '3.0-3.4%' option (price halved) despite this narrative. Second, the latest actual CPI print sits squarely in the '1.5-1.9%' range (1.8%), aligned with economic slowing, yet the market prices this bucket at mere 4.5c (<5% probability), showing an extreme disconnect between pricing and current fundamental reality.
