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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Boston Breach
YesNo
Carolina Royal Ravens
YesNo
Vancouver Surge
YesNo
Riyadh Falcons
YesNo
G2 Minnesota
YesNo
FaZe Vegas
YesNo
Los Angeles Thieves
YesNo
Cloud9 New York
YesNo
Toronto KOI
YesNo
Miami Heretics
YesNo
Paris Gentle Mates
YesNo
OpTic Texas
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 23:57 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is in a state of extreme irrationality with a total trading volume of only 179, indicating an illiquid 'zombie' market. The sum of all 'Yes' prices is a staggering 651% (theoretical max is 400%), implying massive premiums where nearly all mid-to-bottom tier teams are erroneously anchored near 50c. Based on competitive hierarchy, OpTic Texas is likely locked, while bottom-tier teams like Boston and Carolina have a negligible probability (<10%) of finishing Top 4, making their near-50% pricing completely detached from fundamentals.
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Movers
March 2, 2026 - March 12, 2026, Boston Breach rebounded from 26c to 48.1c, and Miami Heretics surged from lows (prev fair value 10c) to 80c. Miami's surge likely reflects a dominant Major performance, while Boston's rebound is likely due to price distortion from illiquidity or noise trading.
March 1, 2026 - March 2, 2026, OpTic Texas's price skyrocketed from 57.5c to 94c, likely due to a key victory or win streak during Major 2 in the simulated timeline, fundamentally altering their qualification odds.
February 27, 2026 - March 2, 2026, Boston Breach's price collapsed from 49c to 26c, as the market corrected its detached 50c valuation to reflect their poor competitive reality.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The market's aggregate probability (sum of Yes prices) exceeds 650%, defying the mathematical limit of 400%. The market effectively implies nearly every team is a 'coin flip' for Top 4, which contradicts the reality of the CDL where top teams (like OpTic, FaZe) historically dominate the standings.
