All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 19:00 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on OpenAI's historical incident frequency, 'Full Outage' level events occur approximately once per quarter (the last major disruption was on Feb 4, 2026). Without active signals of systemic instability (e.g., ongoing DDoS or failed deployments), the base rate probability of a full outage in any given 2-week window is low (~5-10%). The current price of 50c implies a 50% probability, which is a significant deviation from historical baselines and likely represents initial illiquidity rather than market signal.
Sign up to view more information
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The market price implies a 50% probability of a 'Full Outage' in the next two weeks. However, historical data from OpenAI Status (e.g., intervals between the Feb 2026 and Nov 2025 incidents) suggests such severe events happen months apart. Mainstream technical analysis and current system monitoring show no immediate signs of imminent collapse, suggesting the price reflects initial market seeding rather than actual risk assessment.
