All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Chris Oladokun
YesNo
Joe Flacco
YesNo
Gardner Minshew
YesNo
Patrick Mahomes
YesNo
Justin Fields
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 00:38 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Patrick Mahomes' ACL/LCL recovery timeline (9 months) aligns perfectly with Week 1, making his availability a classic coin-flip (50%), which the current price of 49.5c correctly reflects. However, the pricing for the backup options is absurdly detached from reality. Gardner Minshew and Joe Flacco are free agents; even if signed, they face competition and cannot both have ~40% implied probability. Chris Oladokun is a practice squad talent; if Mahomes sits, the defending champion Chiefs are overwhelmingly likely to acquire a proven veteran (not necessarily listed) rather than start Oladokun. The aggregate implied probability for the backups far exceeds 100%, indicating severe liquidity-driven mispricing.
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Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Market prices imply ~40% starting probabilities each for Chris Oladokun, Gardner Minshew, and Joe Flacco, summing to far above 100%. Mainstream sports media and expert consensus hold that if Mahomes sits, the Chiefs would acquire a specific veteran replacement, and the probability of Oladokun starting is near zero. The backup option prices reflect a lack of sell-side liquidity rather than realistic football forecasting.
