The market is assigning overly high implied probabilities to backup quarterbacks, particularly Justin Fields and Chris Oladokun, which contradicts mainstream sports media consensus. Mainstream analysis suggests that if Mahomes is sidelined, the team is far more likely to rely on an experienced veteran (like Flacco or Minshew) rather than a fringe backup. Furthermore, the fact that the sum of implied probabilities exceeds 100% inherently indicates an irrational market state ripe for arbitrage, rather than reflecting actual real-world probabilities.