Elections|$20.7k Vol|
76 days 2 hrsChungcheongnam Province Governor Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Yang Seung-jo
YesNo
Kim Tae-heum
YesNo
Park Soo-hyun
YesNo
Kang Seung-kyu
YesNo
Kang Hoon-sik
YesNo
Chung Jin-suk
YesNo
Yoon Sang-hyun
YesNo
Moon Jin-seok
YesNo
Sung Il-jong
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 21:15 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is undergoing a violent repricing. Contrary to previous analysis, the internal dynamics of the DPK have fundamentally shifted. Yang Seung-jo's price surged on March 10, indicating he has likely secured the nomination or taken a commanding lead in key polls, displacing the previously favored Kang Hoon-sik. The sum of all 'Yes' prices is currently ~140%, reflecting extreme inefficiency. With only 81 days left, the race should be consolidated into a two-way battle (DPK's Yang vs. PPP incumbent Kim). Therefore, candidates other than Yang and Kim (specifically Moon, Park, Kang H, and Yoon) are severely overpriced and their fair value should be near zero. As the frontrunner of the favored party (DPK), Yang warrants >50%, while Kim retains ~40% competitiveness as the incumbent.
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Movers
March 12, 2026 - March 13, 2026, Moon Jin-seok's price spiked from 1.35c to 11.45c. This appears to be price manipulation due to low liquidity or irrational speculative bounce, as fundamentals do not suggest a comeback.
March 9, 2026 - March 10, 2026, Yang Seung-jo's price surged from 23c to 60c, later settling around 45c; simultaneously, Yoon Sang-hyun (30c to 10c), Park Soo-hyun (23c to 13c), and Sung Il-jong (10c to 1.5c) all crashed. The reason is the clarification of the DPK primary race, where Yang established dominance, causing the market to rapidly liquidate the premiums of other contenders.
Divergence
The main divergence lies in the breakdown of market mathematics. Mainstream polls normalize support to 100%, whereas in this prediction market, effectively eliminated candidates like Moon (11%), Park (15%), and Kang H (13%) still occupy significant pricing space, pushing the total implied probability to 141%. This significantly diverges from the 'winner-take-all' reality of elections.
