There is a massive divergence between market expectations and mainstream political common sense. The market prices the DPK candidate, Park Soo-hyun, at an over 92% chance of winning, treating his victory as a foregone conclusion. Conversely, mainstream political analysis widely considers Chungcheongnam-do a core swing province, anticipating a fiercely tight race between the DPK (Park Soo-hyun) and the PPP (incumbent Kim Tae-heum). Pricing the incumbent governor at a mere 2.5% is extremely irrational, suggesting that market participants may be blindly chasing the recent momentum of the DPK primary while ignoring the broader political landscape of the South Korean general elections.