All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
March 31
YesNo
June 30
YesNo
May 31
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.11 22:06 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The current date is March 11, 2026. The market's 50% probability for 'March 15' (4 days away) is significantly overvalued absent an official announcement; the base rate for a surprise flagship release within 96 hours is low. While the timing fits (Claude Opus 4.5 was Nov 2025), the flat pricing curve between March 15 (49.5c) and March 31 (50c) implies the market is irrationally betting entirely on an 'immediate' release. The May/June prices (~73%) are more reasonable given typical release cycles. A logical inversion exists where May 31 is priced higher than June 30; logically, the June probability must be strictly equal to or greater than May.
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Rule Risk
There is a version naming trap: the rules explicitly exclude 'Claude 5', meaning if Anthropic decides to skip 4.7 and release a 5th-generation flagship directly, 'Yes' holders will lose. Additionally, the definition of 'successor' could spark subjective disputes with non-numeric naming (e.g., 'Claude Ultra'), specifically regarding whether the model is an iteration within the 4.x series or a 5.0-level leap.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists between market pricing and public information. No official event is confirmed for the next 4 days, yet the market assigns a ~50% probability to a release by March 15. This pricing reflects aggressive speculation or reaction to unsubstantiated rumors/leaks rather than confirmed schedules.
