All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Shannon Bird
YesNo
John Szemler
YesNo
Dave Young
YesNo
Manny Rutinel
YesNo
Amie Baca-Oehlert
YesNo
Yadira Caraveo
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 13:36 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market exhibits significant pricing inefficiency. Although Dave Young, Yadira Caraveo, and Amie ...
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Divergence
There is a severe disconnect between market prices and political reality. Approximately 15% of the market volume on Polymarket is betting on candidates who have withdrawn or are inactive (primarily Dave Young and Yadira Caraveo), whereas their actual probability of winning the nomination is near zero. This divergence suggests market participants have not fully priced in public withdrawal news.
