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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Sergio Oliver Rodríguez
YesNo
Wilfredo Rolando Morales
YesNo
Esther Soria Gonzales
YesNo
Mario Enrique Severich
YesNo
Alejandro Mostajo Rueda
YesNo
Remigio Ancalle
YesNo
Jhon Ariel Rioja
YesNo
Juan Roberth Flores
YesNo
Ruth Alina Peralta
YesNo
AI Insights:
12 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is exhibiting extreme irrational pricing. Unitel/Ipsos Ciesmori polls (Feb 20) show the unlisted 'Evismo' faction candidate, Leonardo Loza, leading with 16.8%, followed by Sergio Oliver Rodríguez at 10%. If Loza wins, all listed 'Yes' options should resolve to zero (or 'Other'). However, the market is not only overvaluing Sergio (~36c vs 10% polling) but absurdly pricing Esther Soria (polling 2.2%) and Wilfredo Rolando Morales (polling 3.1%) above 30c. This likely stems from name confusion (confusing Wilfredo with Evo Morales) or party confusion regarding Esther Soria (former MAS governor). In reality, Loza commands the MAS/Evismo vote base. The fair value of all listed options must be heavily discounted to account for the unlisted frontrunner Loza.
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Exotics
While this is a standard political election for locals, for a global prediction market audience, the gubernatorial election in Cochabamba, Bolivia, is a relatively niche topic with much lower visibility than national-level general elections.
Movers
March 17, 2026 - Present, Esther Soria Gonzales skyrocketed from ~2c to 37c, and Wilfredo Rolando Morales surged from ~1.5c to 31c. The reason is extreme irrational speculation or severe identity confusion (likely mistaking Wilfredo Morales for Evo Morales, or misidentifying Esther Soria as the main MAS candidate), despite polls showing both under 4%.
March 14, 2026 - March 17, 2026, Sergio Oliver Rodríguez experienced high volatility, crashing from 83c to 23c before rebounding to 36c. The reason was the market realizing that the main rival, unlisted Leonardo Loza (Evismo), was not disqualified and led the polls, shattering the expectation of a guaranteed win for Sergio.
Divergence
Extremely severe divergence exists. Mainstream polls (Unitel/Ipsos) show unlisted Leonardo Loza (16.8%) leading, with Sergio (10%) in second, and everyone else below 5%. However, Polymarket prices imply Esther Soria (32%) and Wilfredo Morales (30%) are top-tier contenders, which is completely disconnected from their actual ~2-3% polling support. The market's total implied probability (including the unlisted Loza) far exceeds 100%, indicating massive inefficiency.
