All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Iván Cepeda Castro
YesNo
Paloma Valencia
YesNo
Roy Barreras
YesNo
Abelardo de la Espriella
YesNo
Carlos Felipe Córdoba
YesNo
Claudia López (IND)
YesNo
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)
YesNo
Mauricio Cárdenas
YesNo
Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)
YesNo
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)
YesNo
Juan Manuel Galán (NL)
YesNo
Daniel Quintero
YesNo
Enrique Peñalosa
YesNo
Sergio Fajardo (DC)
YesNo
Gustavo Bolívar (HC)
YesNo
Juan Carlos Pinzón
YesNo
Vicky Dávila (IND)
YesNo
David Luna Sánchez (IND)
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 22:05 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As the May election approaches, the market is accelerating into a phase of 'polarization' and consolidation. Paloma Valencia (currently ~40c), as the clear winner of the right-wing primary, continues to absorb the anti-left vote. Her upward trend aligns with the logic of 'strategic voting,' where voters abandon Abelardo to ensure a right-wing victory over the left. Iván Cepeda (~38.5c) holds a solid left-wing base (approx. 35-40%), but his upside is capped by the incumbent government's high disapproval ratings. Abelardo de la Espriella (19c) remains significantly overpriced; in Colombia's two-round runoff system, the third-place candidate is typically marginalized. Thus, fair values are adjusted to Paloma 42c (Bullish), Cepeda 39c (Hold), and Abelardo 14c (Bearish).
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Hedging
COP=X
GXG
EC
Colombia's political direction significantly impacts markets, especially given the controversial policies of current leftist President Petro. A victory by a pro-business or center-right candidate would likely boost the Colombian Peso (COP=X) and Ecopetrol (EC), the state-run oil giant, potentially signalling a reversal of exploration bans or a friendlier regulatory environment. Conversely, a radical leftist win could pressure these assets. GXG (Colombia ETF) serves as a broad proxy for country risk. While Colombia is an oil exporter, the impact on global Crude Oil prices is minor compared to the domestic asset volatility.
Divergence
The main divergence lies in the pricing of Abelardo de la Espriella (19c). In Colombian election history and mainstream political analysis, the race typically consolidates into a two-way contest two months before the election. If Paloma has established herself as the right-wing leader, Abelardo's support, coming from the same ideological camp, should theoretically shrink to single digits (as a spoiler). The market currently assigning him a near 20% win probability significantly diverges from the standard political consensus of 'right-wing vote consolidation'.
