All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Victor Marx
YesNo
Scott Bottoms
YesNo
Daniel Thomas
YesNo
Barbara Kirkmeyer
YesNo
Greg Lopez
YesNo
Mark Baisley
YesNo
Jon Gray-Ginsberg
YesNo
Will McBride
YesNo
Jason Clark
YesNo
Jason Mikesell
YesNo
Bob Brinkerhoff
YesNo
Robert Moore
YesNo
Stevan Gess
YesNo
Joshua Griffin
YesNo
Brycen Garrison
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.03 11:54 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
While Victor Marx (41.5c) has seen recent price appreciation, he remains overvalued. Although he has MAGA support, the presence of Scott Bottoms (19.5c) creates a significant vote-splitting dynamic on the far right, which is detrimental in a winner-take-all primary. Barbara Kirkmeyer (33c) is undervalued as the veteran establishment pick; she commands the strongest fundraising and consolidates the non-MAGA base. Mark Baisley (running for Senate) and Greg Lopez (Independent) have effectively zero chance and should be priced at 0.
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Divergence
There is a divergence between market pricing and traditional political logic. The market currently favors Victor Marx (MAGA/Religious wing) at 41.5c over the establishment frontrunner Barbara Kirkmeyer at 33c. Typically, in a swing state like Colorado, the establishment candidate with better general election viability is viewed as the favorite, especially given that Marx faces severe vote-splitting from Bottoms. The market appears to be overweighting base enthusiasm while underweighting the math of vote splitting.
