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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Mark Baisley
YesNo
Janak Joshi
YesNo
George Washington Markert
YesNo
Dathan Jones
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 13:29 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market total (Sum of Yes ~94.5c) has returned to a rational range, eliminating previous undervaluation (78.5c) and overvaluation (127c) extremes. Mark Baisley's price has staged a strong recovery from the February crash (<10c) to 51c, indicating that previous risks of 'withdrawal' or 'non-viability' have been falsified by the market, re-establishing him as the frontrunner. With other candidates stagnant, the market is forming a new consensus around Baisley, significantly compressing the implied probability for 'Other'.
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Rule Risk
Critical conflict between rules and reality. 1. Date Mismatch: The market settlement date (June 3, 2026) is nearly a month *before* the actual primary election date (June 30, 2026), creating a high risk of premature expiration or dispute. 2. Missing Option: Active candidate Sean Pond (Montrose County Commissioner) is running but not listed in the provided options; if he wins, the market cannot resolve correctly without a tradable 'Other' bucket.
