Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page, specifically analyzing the order book depth given the extremely low volume ($21), and cross-reference with Google News for any actual legislative movement on 'Iran War Powers' to update the fair value assessment of this event.

AI-powered analysis for: Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page, specifically analyzing the order book depth given the extremely low volume ($21), and cross-reference with Google News for any actual legislative movement on 'Iran War Powers' to update the fair value assessment of this event.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search the official U.S. House and Senate legislative calendars for March 2026 to calculate the remaining 'legislative days,' specifically checking for recesses that would make it procedurally impossible for both chambers to pass identical text by the March 31st deadline.

AI-powered analysis for: Search the official U.S. House and Senate legislative calendars for March 2026 to calculate the remaining 'legislative days,' specifically checking for recesses that would make it procedurally impossible for both chambers to pass identical text by the March 31st deadline.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Considering the negligible liquidity (Volume: ~$21), analyze the feasibility of placing extremely low 'Stink Bids' to catch potential panic selling, while calculating the high risk of capital lock-up opportunity costs if no counterparty matches the order before the expiration date.

AI-powered analysis for: Considering the negligible liquidity (Volume: ~$21), analyze the feasibility of placing extremely low 'Stink Bids' to catch potential panic selling, while calculating the high risk of capital lock-up opportunity costs if no counterparty matches the order before the expiration date.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$48.8k Vol|

12 days 5 hrs

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

YesNo

3.15¢

96.85¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+2.1¢

AI Insights:

13 hours ago Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

With only 13 days remaining until expiration, the legislative window for passing a War Powers Resolution (WPR) is effectively closed. Despite 'Operation Epic Fury', the GOP-controlled Congress remains supportive of the administration, and the procedural hurdles (committee markup, floor debates, reconciliation) are insurmountable in this timeframe. The current price of 3.15 cents reflects long-tail hedging rather than a realistic probability, with the true likelihood converging to 0.

Sign up to view more information

Hedging

Crude Oil

LMT

Gold

RTX

If Congress passes a resolution limiting military action against Iran, it signals strong domestic anti-war sentiment or fear of escalation, typically reducing the geopolitical risk premium. Crude Oil is most directly impacted as conflict with Iran threatens supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Passage implies lower war risk, likely bearish for oil; failure to pass amidst escalation is bullish. Defense contractors (LMT, RTX) might see minor negative impact due to reduced expectations of military engagement. Gold, as a safe haven, would also react to the de-escalation signal.

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31? - AI Odds Analysis

AI Insights:

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner