This is a standard weather prediction market. While checking the weather is a common daily routine, betting on the precise daily high temperature bracket at a specific weather station is a somewhat niche and novelty-driven market.

There is a significant divergence. The prediction market heavily favors higher temperatures of 24°C and above, while the latest Wunderground and mainstream weather forecasts indicate a high of 70°F-72°F (21°C-22°C). This is likely due to a recent downward revision in weather models that market participants have not yet fully priced in [3, 5].

April 15, 2026 (00:18 - 12:08) - The price for '24°C or higher' surged from 16.95c to a peak of 49.45c before settling at 36.5c, likely due to updated near-term weather forecasts indicating unusually high temperatures at Incheon Airport for April 16. April 15, 2026 (00:18 - 12:08) - Prices for lower temperature options such as '21°C' and '20°C' experienced declines, with '21°C' dropping from 13.5c to 10.5c and '20°C' falling from 9.5c to 3.55c, reflecting the upward shift in forecasted temperatures.