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Market
Price
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Value
Value
Edge
mert
YesNo
threadguy
YesNo
CBB
YesNo
Ansem
YesNo
Cobie
YesNo
CZ
YesNo
Proph3t
YesNo
Sisyphus
YesNo
Arthur_0x
YesNo
Bonk Guy
YesNo
Tom Lee
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 06:20 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Mert's price has significantly retraced from recent highs (91c) to around 54c, aligning with the expected 'attention decay.' While the Solana ecosystem remains active, sustaining an all-time high (ATH) Mindshare is difficult, especially as market sentiment cools. Proph3t shows extreme volatility (ranging from 32c to 59c), indicating high uncertainty driven by short-term Twitter algorithms or specific events; 45c is a reasonable risk-adjusted valuation. CBB has shown some momentum recently, making 30c a fair estimate. For dormant KOLs or those with massive historical benchmarks (CZ, Cobie, Ansem), the accelerating time decay (Theta) as the March 31st deadline approaches makes hitting a new ATH highly unlikely, warranting further valuation downgrades.
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Exotics
This is a highly niche market focused on influence metrics within the specific subculture of 'Crypto Twitter'. To outsiders, 'Mindshare' and the specific KOL names mean nothing. It gamifies the intangible asset of social media clout, making it a classic crypto-native exotic market.
Movers
Mar 5, 2026 - Mar 12, 2026, CZ's Yes price plummeted from 45c to 10.65c as the market realized he could not replicate the massive attention spike from his January release within the remaining time, lacking new macro narratives.
Mar 5, 2026 - Mar 12, 2026, Mert's Yes price retraced from a high of 91.5c to 54c as the previous FUD/debate-driven traffic peak subsided, and Mindshare reverted to the mean.
Mar 10, 2026 - Mar 11, 2026, Proph3t's Yes price crashed from 59.5c to 32.5c, indicating the previous rally was likely unsustainable short-term hype or a collapse in confidence following data updates showing targets weren't met.
Mar 6, 2026 - Mar 10, 2026, Sisyphus's Yes price plunged from 42c to 11.5c, further confirming the previous rally was speculation without fundamental support.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The market retains relatively high hopes for Mert (54c) and Proph3t (32c), yet on data platforms like Kaito, breaking a trailing 12-month high within less than 20 days typically requires an extreme 'black swan' event. Market prices seem to overestimate the traffic generated by 'organic growth' or 'routine arguments,' ignoring the difficulty of the exponential attention burst needed to hit an ATH. Specifically, the volatility of newer accounts like Proph3t and CBB is not fully reflecting the downside risk in their pricing.
