All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
DIPA
YesNo
EDEK
YesNo
DNM (DEK)
YesNo
DISY
YesNo
AKEL
YesNo
ELAM
YesNo
VOLT
YesNo
KOSP
YesNo
DIKO
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 17:33 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on historical election data and 2026 polling trends in Cyprus, the parliamentary election is effectively a two-horse race between DISY (Right) and AKEL (Left). Both parties typically poll neck-and-neck in the 20-25% range. While ELAM (Far-right) has solidified third place, the probability of it overtaking both major established parties to win the 'most seats' is extremely low. The market is currently exhibiting significant irrationality: the sum of all option prices is roughly 124.5 cents, indicating a massive overestimation of tail risks. Specifically, minor parties like DNM, EDEK, and DIPA are priced at 7-8 cents, whereas their actual probability of winning the election is near zero. Fair value adjustments concentrate probability on the top two, reducing minor parties to near zero.
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Divergence
The primary divergence lies in the pricing of minor parties. Mainstream polls and political analysis consistently place parties like DIKO, EDEK, and DIPA in a fight for third or fourth place, with virtually no chance of winning the most seats. However, the prediction market assigns a combined implied probability of over 30% to these minor parties, which starkly contradicts the political reality. Additionally, the market implies a significant lead for DISY over AKEL (57% vs 28%), whereas recent polls often show the two within the margin of error, suggesting the market is overly optimistic about DISY.
