Resolution heavily relies on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker). The nuances regarding replies (only counted if recorded on the main feed) and deleted posts (must survive ~5 minutes to be captured) create edge cases that could easily lead to disputes if the tracker experiences downtime or glitches.

Betting on the exact tweet count of a specific crypto executive within a precise 7-day window is highly niche and eccentric. Outside of prediction market degens, no one naturally thinks about or tracks this metric.

April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of the 20-39 option steadily rose from 80.5c to 93.5c. The reason is that with only 1 day left until resolution, CZ's total post count is basically locked within this range, further increasing market confidence in the final outcome. April 26, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the price of the 20-39 option steadily rose from 52c to 80.5c, while the 40-59 option dropped from 33c to 10c. The reason is that with more than half the time elapsed, CZ's daily posting volume stabilized, making the market highly confident that the final count will fall in the 20-39 range, significantly weakening expectations for 40+ posts. April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of the <20 option plummeted from 42c to 4c, 20-39 rose from 33.5c to 63.5c, 40-59 dropped from 51.5c to 17c, and 60-79 plummeted from 41.7c to 6.5c. The reason is that CZ posted frequently in the first two days of the tracked period, nearly eliminating the possibility of <20. Meanwhile, expectations for extremely high frequencies cooled down, causing the market consensus to converge tightly on the 20-39 range. April 23, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of the <20 option dropped from 37c to 28.5c, the 20-39 option rose from 50c to 58c, the 40-59 option dropped from 29c to 23.5c, the 60-79 option surged from 2c to 26.15c, and the 80-99 option plummeted from 7.65c to 0.2c. The reason is that as time progressed, CZ's posting frequency might have slightly increased, shifting market expectations toward higher ranges, while extremely high ranges (80+) were completely ruled out. April 22, 2026 - April 23, 2026, the price of the <20 option dropped from 39c to 37c, the 20-39 option rose from 43.5c to 50c, the 40-59 option dropped from 39c to 29c, and the 80-99 option plummeted from 22.3c to 7.65c. The reason is that initial uncertainty gradually dissipated, and market consensus began to converge on a normal posting frequency (20-39 times).