All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
April 15
YesNo
March 21
YesNo
March 31
YesNo
AI Insights:
10 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
With only 3 days left until March 21 and 13 days until March 31, DeepSeek's continued silence—no teasers, no Beta—makes an on-time release physically impossible. The ~3c pricing for March 31 represents dead liquidity. For April 15, the 51c price (~50% probability) is significantly overvalued. Missing the Q1 cutoff (March 31) usually signals fundamental technical or compute bottlenecks, not just a two-week administrative delay. Software engineering history suggests that once a quarter-end milestone is missed, the release window likely shifts to mid-year (May/June). Thus, the fair value for April 15 should be substantially lower than the market price, likely around 25c.
Sign up to view more information
Hedging
NVDA
Nasdaq 100
MSFT
GOOGL
The release of DeepSeek has extremely high financial correlation. Its previous models triggered market concerns about the competitive moats of US AI giants (Google, Microsoft) and questioned the sustainability of Nvidia's hardware demand (compute deflation) due to their high cost-efficiency. If V4 demonstrates even stronger 'high performance at low cost' characteristics, it could reignite sell-offs in chip stocks (NVDA) and volatility in the broader tech sector.
Movers
Mar 17, 2026 - Mar 18, 2026, [April 15] price retraced from 57.5c to 51c. The cause was fading optimism after the previous day's rebound, as official silence persisted, forcing the price to seek a new equilibrium.
Mar 16, 2026 - Mar 17, 2026, [April 15] price rebounded significantly from 42.5c to 57.5c. The cause was a technical correction where speculative capital 'bought the dip,' betting that the sell-off following the 'Pi Day' disappointment was an overreaction.
Mar 14, 2026 - Mar 16, 2026, [April 15] price crashed from 68.5c to 42.5c, and [March 31] fell from 24.5c to 8c. The cause was the missed expectation of a March 14 (Pi Day) release, confirming to the market that the Q1 release plan had likely failed.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists between market pricing and fundamental logic. The market currently prices a 51% chance of release by April 15, reflecting a gamble on a "minor delay" scenario. However, with zero official news less than two weeks before the end of Q1, missing the March deadline typically signals deeper development hurdles. Mainstream consensus suggests that if March is missed, DeepSeek is likely to delay by months rather than weeks to refine the model. Therefore, the market price (51c) is far higher than the rational probability derived from the current silence (<30%).
