Elections|$9,331 Vol|
4 days 21 hrsDenmark Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Social Democrats 15%+
YesNo
Social Democrats 10–15%
YesNo
Social Democrats <5%
YesNo
Other
YesNo
Social Democrats 5–10%
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.18 05:21 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the latest polling data (Context indicates a lead of ~8.5% for the Social Democrats), the '5-10%' bracket remains the statistical Base Case. With only 6 days left until the election, the market price for '<5%' has rebounded to 23.5c from 14.5c, reflecting excessive hedging or fear of the race tightening. However, shrinking a gap from 8.5% to under 5% requires a significant swing, the probability of which is lower than the market's current implied odds (~24%). Thus, '5-10%' is undervalued (fair value should be closer to 60c), while '<5%' is overpriced. '10-15%' remains a reasonable hedge for Social Democrats outperforming, retaining a value of ~21c.
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Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream polling data indicates a gap of approximately 8.5%, which makes the probability of the result falling within the '5-10%' bracket extremely high (should be around 60%). However, the prediction market is currently pricing this option at only 47.5c, while assigning a high premium (23.5c) to the '<5%' option. This suggests that market participants are more worried about election uncertainty than pollsters, or there is defensive buying in this lower-liquidity market.
