All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Green Left
YesNo
Liberal Alliance
YesNo
Moderates
YesNo
Venstre
YesNo
Denmark Democrats
YesNo
Social Democrats
YesNo
Danish People’s Party
YesNo
Union Party
YesNo
Danish Social Liberal Party
YesNo
Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands)
YesNo
Inuit Ataqatigiit
YesNo
Red–Green Alliance
YesNo
Naleraq
YesNo
The Alternative
YesNo
Conservative People’s Party
YesNo
Citizens’ Party
YesNo
AI Insights:
3 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
With less than 6 days until the March 24 Danish election, recent polls (Voxmeter, Epinion) consistently show Green Left (SF) leading Liberal Alliance (LA) by ~2-3 percentage points in the race for second place. The Social Democrats have effectively exited this '2nd place' market as they are polling firmly in 1st place (~21-24%), justifying their price drop to near zero. The current market prices (SF ~74.5c, LA ~12c) efficiently reflect this consensus. Given the short timeframe and SF's stable polling lead, their fair value is slightly above market at ~78%, while Liberal Alliance retains a reasonable ~14% implied probability for a late upset.
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Movers
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, Liberal Alliance dropped further from 20c to 12c, while Green Left held strong near 75c. As the election (Mar 24) approaches without polls tightening, the market is squeezing out the probability premium for trailing candidates, solidifying Green Left's lead.
March 16, 2026 - March 18, 2026, Green Left's price surged from 62.5c to 75.5c, while Liberal Alliance dropped from 19.5c to 11.5c. This was driven by the Mar 16 Voxmeter poll showing Green Left re-establishing a clear lead (13.4% vs 11.0%), dispelling doubts from a previous outlier poll.
March 13, 2026 - March 17, 2026, The market underwent a massive 'rules correction' and de-bubbling. Social Democrats crashed from 45.5c to 1c, and Venstre from 46.5c to 8c. This corrected a severe mispricing (total implied probability >100% and likely user confusion regarding '2nd Place' vs 'Winner' rules). As rational capital entered, the price collapsed to reflect the reality that Social Democrats are polling 1st and thus have near-zero chance of finishing 2nd.
