All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
15–20B
YesNo
<15B
YesNo
No IPO by June 30, 2026
YesNo
20–25B
YesNo
25–30B
YesNo
30B+
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.14 16:21 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market underwent a fundamental sentiment reversal on March 11, 2026. The 'No IPO' option surged from ~25% to nearly 90%, while '<15B' crashed from ~58% to single digits, before recovering slightly by March 14. This violent swing strongly suggests decisive negative news emerged on March 11 (e.g., an official delay announcement or a missed critical S-1 filing window). With only 3.5 months remaining until June 30, if a public S-1 has not been filed by now, completing the roadshow and listing before the deadline is mathematically challenging. While the market corrected the oversold condition of '<15B' slightly on March 14 (rebounding to 14c), 'No IPO' remains the rational base case due to time decay and the duration of regulatory processes.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy Yes on all options (Cover the field).
Plan Description:
The sum of all Yes prices is currently ~97.6 cents (14.3 + 3.2 + 0.25 + 0.25 + 1.1 + 78.5). This represents a risk-free arbitrage opportunity; buying the entire bundle costs less than $1, and one option must resolve to Yes, paying out $1. While the annualized yield is modest at ~8.4%, it is a deterministic return.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 2¢
|Annualized yield: 8.38%
Hedging
RDDT
Reddit (RDDT) is the most direct public peer for Discord, and their valuation multiples are highly correlated. If RDDT shares drop significantly before Discord's debut, it will directly depress Discord's pricing expectations. Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) represents broader tech sentiment, which dictates whether the IPO window is open and the level of premium investors are willing to pay.
Movers
March 10, 2026 - March 11, 2026, the market experienced a crash-like reversal. The '<15B' option collapsed from 58.5c to 7.25c, while the 'No IPO' option skyrocketed from 25c to 89.5c. The reason is the collapse of the previously held 'urgent low-valuation IPO' thesis, likely due to Discord missing a critical compliance disclosure window or credible reports confirming an IPO delay to H2 2026, causing the probability of a pre-June 30 listing to evaporate overnight.
March 5, 2026 - March 6, 2026, the '<15B' option had previously surged from 41c to 54c as the market digested rumors of a low-valuation listing; this optimism was completely crushed on March 11.
