Can you explain the specific win/loss conditions for this Trump Truth Social posts market, including exactly what types of posts count and how the Polymarket xtracker handles deleted posts?

AI-powered analysis for: Can you explain the specific win/loss conditions for this Trump Truth Social posts market, including exactly what types of posts count and how the Polymarket xtracker handles deleted posts?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Is Donald Trump's posting volume on Truth Social purely random, or can we predict his activity level between May 12 and May 19 based on upcoming scheduled news, legal events, or political milestones?

AI-powered analysis for: Is Donald Trump's posting volume on Truth Social purely random, or can we predict his activity level between May 12 and May 19 based on upcoming scheduled news, legal events, or political milestones?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the extremely low current volume (2.02) in this market, how can you execute a 'stink bid' strategy across the 11 different post count brackets to catch sudden panic selling or mispricing?

AI-powered analysis for: Given the extremely low current volume (2.02) in this market, how can you execute a 'stink bid' strategy across the 11 different post count brackets to catch sudden panic selling or mispricing?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts May 12 - May 19, 2026?

Politics|$14.1k Vol|

6 days 21 hrs

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts May 12 - May 19, 2026? - AI Found +21.6¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 1 hours ago

Top Undervalued

+21.6¢

200+(No)

+7.5¢

140-159(Yes)

+3.5¢

120-139(Yes)

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts May 12 - May 19, 2026? AI analysis: • +21.6¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest price trends and Trump's recent activity on Truth Social, his weekly post count ...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

200+

YesNo

31.55¢

68.45¢

10¢

90¢

0¢

+21.6¢

140-159

YesNo

10.5¢

89.5¢

18¢

82¢

+7.5¢

0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Rule Risk

Moderate risk exists. Settlement relies on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker), and explicitly states that 'replies' accidentally recorded on the main feed and 'deleted posts' surviving for ~5 minutes will count. This may cause discrepancies between the tracker's data and the native feed observed by users, leading to disputes.

Exotics

Quite exotic. The general public rarely thinks about or predicts the exact number of social media posts a public figure makes during a specific week. This is a highly niche, entertainment-driven prediction market lacking broad real-world significance.

Movers

May 10, 2026 - May 12, 2026: The price of the '200+' option surged from 9.5c to 25.45c, and the '180-199' option rose from 8.35c to 21.75c. The reason is the market pricing in an extremely heavy volume of posts from Trump during this week, likely triggered by breaking news or intense campaign activity. May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026: Due to illiquidity and capital reallocation, several options (like 120-139) experienced large price swings, and massive spreads remain across the board.