All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Daniel Ennis
YesNo
Janice Boylan
YesNo
Gerry Hutch
YesNo
Séamas McGrattan
YesNo
Ray McAdam
YesNo
Mary Fitzpatrick
YesNo
Gillian Sherratt
YesNo
Malachy Steenson
YesNo
Janet Horner
YesNo
John Stephens
YesNo
Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin
YesNo
Ian Noel Smyth
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 08:32 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market exhibits a significant 'pricing dislocation'. Previously, pricing was driven by rumors that Gillian Sherratt would be the Sinn Féin 'celebrity' nominee (trading ~40c). However, the SF convention on Feb 25th officially selected Cllr Janice Boylan, defeating Sherratt. While Sherratt's price collapsed, the structural probability belonging to Sinn Féin (a dominant party in this constituency) did not transfer to Boylan (currently only 12.7c); instead, it drifted to Daniel Ennis (72.5c). While Ennis is the legitimate favorite due to transfer friendliness, 72% is overpriced and implicitly discounts SF's core voter base (historically 20-30%). Boylan, as the confirmed candidate, has a fair value closer to 25c. Gerry Hutch remains a 'lottery ticket' with a high floor of personal votes but a low ceiling due to toxicity in transfers.
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Exotics
This is a specific regional political event (Irish by-election) that is niche for a global audience. The inclusion of candidates like Gerry Hutch (a known crime figure/'The Monk') adds a layer of novelty/sensation, distinguishing it from mainstream macro political predictions.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The prediction market assigns a 73% probability to Daniel Ennis and only ~13% to Sinn Féin (Janice Boylan). Contrastingly, mainstream Irish political analysis (e.g., Extra.ie) characterizes the race as a 'tense showdown' and has rated Sinn Féin's chances as high as 6/10. The market appears to be over-penalizing Sinn Féin for recent polling struggles and transfer toxicity, ignoring the party's structural floor as the largest opposition party.
