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Value
Edge
$2B
YesNo
$300M
YesNo
$700M
YesNo
$500M
YesNo
$1B
YesNo
$3B
YesNo
$10B
YesNo
$5B
YesNo
$4B
YesNo
AI Insights:
15 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is experiencing a sharp 'V-shaped' recovery. Based on the latest data (Mar 16-17), the $500M option surged from 66c to 77c, and the $1B option rebounded from 35.5c to 44c, indicating that the panic selling (capitulation) of the previous days has ended and capital is re-entering to buy the dip. The fundamental logic remains unchanged: EdgeX benchmarks against dYdX (FDV ~$1.5B) and Hyperliquid. The current price of 44c for the $1B option implies only a 44% probability of reaching a $1B valuation, which remains undervalued relative to peers. Notably, the massive spread between the $700M option (53c) and the $300M option (90.5c) suggests the market is extremely confident in a launch but lacks confidence in mid-tier valuations ($700M-$1B). This pricing distortion offers room for correction. I also believe the $2B option is excessively bearish (only 8.5c) and offers high odds value.
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Exotics
This is a prediction about the future valuation of a specific unlisted cryptocurrency project (EdgeX). While EdgeX has some recognition in the DeFi/derivatives space, it is a relatively niche topic compared to major assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum. It's standard discourse within crypto trading circles but exotic to the general public.
Movers
Mar 16, 2026 - Mar 17, 2026, the $500M option price surged from 66c to 77c (+11c), and the $1B option rebounded from 35.5c to 44c (+8.5c). The reason is a market bottom bounce; the panic selling of previous days drove prices away from fundamentals, and as sentiment repaired, bullish capital re-entered to bet on EdgeX's base valuation range.
Mar 14, 2026 - Mar 17, 2026, the $1B option price further retreated from 46.5c to 35.5c (-11c), while the $700M option fell from 61.5c to 49.5c (-12c). The reason is a shift in sentiment from 'correction' to 'capitulation'; amidst the lack of a clear launch date, patience has worn thin, leading to a crowded exit by bulls and a rapid downward revision of valuation expectations.
Mar 13, 2026 - Mar 15, 2026, the $1B option plummeted from 54.5c to 39.5c (-15c), and the $700M option fell from 67c to 51.5c (-15.5c). The reason was a deep correction following an overheated rally, with early speculative capital taking profits.
Mar 10, 2026 - Mar 13, 2026, the $1B option surged from 41c to 54.5c (+13.5c). The reason was a structural reversal in confidence, with capital aggressively pricing in a 'normal valuation launch'.
Divergence
There is a significant internal pricing divergence. dYdX's current FDV is approximately $1.5B, yet the prediction market implies only a 44% probability of EdgeX FDV > $1B and a mere 8.5% probability of FDV > $2B. This suggests that prediction market participants have valuation expectations for EdgeX that are significantly lower than its top-tier peers, indicating pessimistic sentiment.
