All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
880-919
YesNo
1440-1479
YesNo
1480-1519
YesNo
1200-1239
YesNo
2000+
YesNo
1760-1839
YesNo
1160-1199
YesNo
1920-1999
YesNo
1400-1439
YesNo
1000-1039
YesNo
840-879
YesNo
1280-1319
YesNo
1360-1399
YesNo
1600-1679
YesNo
1520-1559
YesNo
1040-1079
YesNo
920-959
YesNo
1080-1119
YesNo
960-999
YesNo
800-839
YesNo
760-779
YesNo
1240-1279
YesNo
340-359
YesNo
1560-1599
YesNo
360-379
YesNo
1680-1759
YesNo
<20
YesNo
320-339
YesNo
40-59
YesNo
580-599
YesNo
480-499
YesNo
560-579
YesNo
120-139
YesNo
440-459
YesNo
1320-1359
YesNo
680-699
YesNo
620-639
YesNo
200-219
YesNo
1120-1159
YesNo
20-39
YesNo
100-119
YesNo
740-759
YesNo
380-399
YesNo
640-659
YesNo
720-739
YesNo
180-199
YesNo
600-619
YesNo
520-539
YesNo
80-99
YesNo
60-79
YesNo
540-559
YesNo
140-159
YesNo
1840-1919
YesNo
300-319
YesNo
420-439
YesNo
500-519
YesNo
460-479
YesNo
400-419
YesNo
260-279
YesNo
660-679
YesNo
700-719
YesNo
220-239
YesNo
240-259
YesNo
780-799
YesNo
160-179
YesNo
280-299
YesNo
AI Insights:
11 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is undergoing a significant upward revision in expectations, shifting its center of gravity from 'Moderate Activity' (~40 tweets/day, the 1200s range) to 'High Activity' (~50 tweets/day, the 1500s range). Recent price data shows that while the aggressive 1560-1599 range saw a sharp correction (dropping from 8c to 4.75c) after yesterday's spike, capital did not exit the market but instead rotated into the adjacent 1480-1559 range (steadily rising above 6c). This suggests the market is moving beyond speculative bets on extremes and forming a new, higher consensus baseline. The weakness in the 1160-1240 range further confirms the view that the probability of Elon dropping below 40 tweets/day in April is diminishing.
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Exotics
This is a classic 'Novelty' market focusing on the social media behavior frequency of a specific celebrity. While familiar to Elon Musk followers and prediction market veterans (as these are recurring monthly markets), it remains an unconventional, niche topic outside of standard financial forecasting.
