April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of 62-63°F surged from 16c to 30.5c before plunging back to 14.5c. This volatility was driven by conflicting weather models revising the expected temperature drop during the incoming cold front. April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of 58-59°F climbed from 14.5c to 26c and then retracted to 20.5c, reflecting the forecasts oscillating between a high of 59°F and 61°F.

April 20, 2026 06:58 - 13:28, the price of '72°F or higher' surged from 28c to 47c, driven by updated intra-day high-resolution weather models that revised the high temperature forecast upwards. April 19, 2026 06:03 - April 20, 2026 12:23, the price of '68-69°F' dropped significantly from 39.5c to 16c, reflecting a diminished probability of sub-70°F temps as forecasts updated. April 19, 2026 04:58 - 10:23, the price of '72°F or higher' briefly fell from 35.5c to 13c, as early cloud cover predictions suggested suppressed heating, though this was later corrected.

While weather prediction is an established category in prediction markets, betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific city is still a relatively niche and novelty micro-event compared to mainstream topics.

April 20, 2026 - April 21, 2026: The price of the 27°C option plummeted from 35c to below 0.2c, while the 28°C price surged from 42c to 64.5c, and the 29°C price rebounded from 19.5c to 35.5c. The reason is that the actual temperature trend in Hong Kong on that day was higher than previously expected, causing 27°C to be eliminated early, with funds rapidly concentrating on 28°C and 29°C. April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026: The price of the 29°C option plummeted from 39.5c to 14.5c, and the 30°C option dropped from 16.5c to below 1c. Concurrently, the 27°C and 28°C options surged from 11.5c to 35c and from 32c to 51.5c, respectively. The reason is the updated forecast from the Hong Kong Observatory, which adjusted the expected maximum temperatures downwards due to anticipated clouds and showers, causing a sell-off in higher temperature options and converging expectations toward the 27-28°C range.

While weather markets are somewhat common on prediction platforms, predicting the exact high temperature in Moscow on a specific day is not something the general public actively thinks about, making it a niche derivative topic.

April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the prices of the 8°C and 9°C options surged from around 19.5c and 8.0c to over 42.5c and 28c respectively, driven by updated weather forecasts predicting warmer temperatures. April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the 4°C, 5°C, and 6°C options plummeted from above 20c to under 5c, as the revised weather models ruled out these cooler temperature ranges.

April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the price of the 78-79°F option surged from 25c to 46.5c, while the 76-77°F option plummeted from 31.5c to 7c. This was driven by updated weather forecasts which revised the expected high temperature for April 21 upwards to around 78°F, causing market capital to shift towards the higher temperature bracket.