The complexity of the rules lies in its reliance on a specific tracker (Polymarket's xtracker) and specific types of tweets. Replies are excluded unless they appear on the main feed. Furthermore, deleted tweets count if they survive long enough (~5 mins) to be captured. These technical details could create discrepancies compared to manual observation on X.

Predicting the exact number of tweets a person posts in a week is a highly niche and entertainment-driven market. Typically, the general public or traditional financial markets do not care about such highly specific and random behavioral data.

April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the 240-259 option rose from 16.5c to 29.5c, as the progression of time further solidified Elon's actual posting frequency within this bracket's projection, driving capital toward the most probable center range. April 7, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the price of the 220-239 option steadily rose from 12.5c to 17.5c before dropping back to 13.5c, as Elon's cumulative post count initially lagged aggressive projections but subsequent frequency pickup caused the market to recalibrate. April 4, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the 260-279 option increased from 11.5c to 22.5c, because after the tracking period started, Elon's actual posting frequency aligned closely with these brackets, causing market expectations to consolidate here.