All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
90-114
YesNo
115-139
YesNo
215-239
YesNo
65-89
YesNo
240+
YesNo
140-164
YesNo
165-189
YesNo
190-214
YesNo
AI Insights:
1 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
With approximately 1 hour remaining until market resolution (12:00 PM ET), price data indicates the '65-89' option has collapsed from ~83c to nearly 0c, confirming that Musk's tweet count has irreversibly breached 89. The market is overwhelmingly pricing '90-114' as the winner (99c). Given the limited time left, Musk would need to maintain an extreme posting frequency (one tweet every 2-3 minutes) to push the count above 114 into the next bracket (115-139). This tail risk is negligible (valued at 1c), making '90-114' the virtually locked outcome.
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Exotics
This is a typical Novelty market. While Elon Musk is a public figure, predicting the exact number of his tweets within a specific 48-hour window is extremely niche, belonging to the 'Degen' category unique to prediction markets, and is rarely addressed in standard financial or social analysis.
Movers
March 18, 2026, 09:15 - 14:40 (UTC), The price of '65-89' crashed from 83.5c to 0.05c, while '90-114' skyrocketed from 16.5c to 99.1c. The reason is that Musk resumed activity in the ET morning, pushing the cumulative tweet count past the 89 threshold. This instantly rendered the lower bracket worthless and consolidated value into the current 90-114 range.
March 18, 2026, 07:00 - 09:15 (UTC), '65-89' climbed from 67.5c to 83.5c as Musk was relatively quiet early in the morning, leading the market to briefly believe the count might stay under 89.
March 17, 2026, 14:00 - 22:00 (UTC), A fierce fluctuation occurred between '65-89' and '90-114' driven by Musk's intraday posting cadence.
