All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
200-219
YesNo
220-239
YesNo
180-199
YesNo
320-339
YesNo
300-319
YesNo
240-259
YesNo
280-299
YesNo
340-359
YesNo
360-379
YesNo
260-279
YesNo
160-179
YesNo
400-419
YesNo
380-399
YesNo
440-459
YesNo
460-479
YesNo
420-439
YesNo
480-499
YesNo
140-159
YesNo
500-519
YesNo
540-559
YesNo
560-579
YesNo
520-539
YesNo
120-139
YesNo
580+
YesNo
100-119
YesNo
20-39
YesNo
60-79
YesNo
40-59
YesNo
80-99
YesNo
AI Insights:
2 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is significantly overestimating Elon Musk's tweet frequency. Recent tracking data (March 13-20 cycle) shows a reversion to the mean, with a steady-state daily average of only 24-30 tweets. The current market consensus (centered on 260-279) implies ~38 tweets/day, which contradicts this data. Furthermore, the San Francisco jury began deliberations on the Twitter acquisition fraud case on March 17; legal counsel typically advises social media restraint during such critical windows, increasing the likelihood of lower volume. While the '350+' high-frequency thesis has collapsed, the market's adjustment is lagging, stalling at the 260 range instead of fully pricing in the fair value within the 200-240 zone.
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Exotics
This is a typical novelty market. While it is a regular weekly event for the Polymarket community, betting on the exact number of tweets a CEO will post in a specific week is highly unusual and absurd in traditional finance or mainstream betting, representing a highly specific attention economy game.
Movers
March 15, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of '260-279' surged from 5c to 16c, driven by a massive repricing event. As new data confirmed Elon Musk's daily average reverting to ~30, investors abandoned the '340+' high-frequency thesis (which had been fueled by a previous single-day spike), causing high-bucket prices to collapse. Capital rotated out of these extremes and consolidated into the 260-279 range as the new, albeit likely temporary, consensus.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The market pricing peaks at 260-279 (implied ~38 tweets/day), which conflicts with both the recent 5-day tracking data (~24-30 tweets/day) and the ongoing jury deliberations (likely incentivizing silence). The actual data trend points towards the 200-240 range, suggesting the market is lagging in pricing the 'reversion to mean'.
