All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
40-64
YesNo
<40
YesNo
115-139
YesNo
90-114
YesNo
65-89
YesNo
140-164
YesNo
165-189
YesNo
240+
YesNo
190-214
YesNo
215-239
YesNo
AI Insights:
1 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although Elon Musk teased the Tesla Roadster 'unveil' on March 17, which may spur temporary engageme...
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Rule Risk
There are subtle risks: 1. 'Replies' usually don't count, but do if they appear on the 'Main Feed'. This distinction relies on X's algorithm and the tracker's specific capture logic, creating potential edge case disputes. 2. Deleted posts count if captured (approx. 5 mins window), allowing Musk to potentially manipulate the count via 'tweet and delete'. 3. Reliance on a specific third-party tool (xtracker) introduces technical dependency risk.
Exotics
This is a classic Novelty market. While Musk's tweets are widely followed, betting on the exact volume of his output within a specific 48-hour window is a niche and highly stochastic wager, distinct from mainstream economic or political questions.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Market pricing favors the '65-89' range (~37%) or higher, implying weekday-level activity. However, the actual data pattern shows a distinct drop-off during weekends (most recently 40-64). The market appears to be ignoring the 'weekend effect' or overestimating the sustained impact of recent news (Roadster) on volume.
