Moderate risk exists as resolution heavily relies on a specific third-party tracker rather than native X data. Distinguishing between standard replies (excluded) and 'main feed replies' (included) could cause confusion, and posts deleted under 5 minutes risk being uncounted if the tracker misses them.

Betting on the exact frequency of a billionaire's social media posts over a specific 48-hour window is a highly niche and novelty proposition. Normal people do not track tweet volumes at this granular level.

March 28, 2026 - March 30, 2026: The price of the 40-64 option surged from 19.5c to 91c, while the 65-89 option plummeted from 48.5c to 7c, and the 90-114 option dropped from 23c to under 1c. This occurred because, as the tracking window neared its end, traders dynamically repriced the options based on Musk's extremely low actual posting volume, locking in the 40-64 range and drastically downgrading the probabilities of higher-frequency brackets. March 26, 2026 - March 28, 2026: The price of the 115-139 option plummeted from 28c to 4.5c. This occurred because as the tracking window approached and began, traders observed that Musk's recent actual posting frequency could not support expectations of very high posting volumes, leading funds to shift toward lower-to-medium frequency brackets. March 26, 2026 - March 27, 2026: Prices for high-frequency options such as 140-164, 165-189, and 190-214 plummeted from around 50c to below 5c. This was caused by an initial overestimation of Musk's posting volume or distorted pricing due to low liquidity. As the tracking window approached, traders aggressively corrected the prices downward to align with his actual recent posting frequency.