Current market prices show that the Yes prices for 33°C and 34°C are the highest at 30c and 29c resp...

March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026: The price of '32°C or below' plummeted from a peak of 41c to 8c, as approaching the resolution date, actual weather forecasts indicated temperatures significantly higher than 32°C, drastically reducing the probability of this option. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026: The price of '33°C' steadily increased from 16.5c to 30c, because forecasted temperatures gradually locked into the 33°C-35°C range. March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026: The price of '34°C' climbed from 16.5c to a peak of 31c, reflecting the market's high expectation for this temperature range.

Major weather models (GFS, ECMWF) and mainstream forecast sources tightly cluster the maximum temper...

March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of 16°C surged from 0.18c to 0.335c before settling at 0.3c, reflecting strengthened expectations of weather forecasts converging on this temperature range. March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of 12°C plummeted from 0.165c to 0.011c, and 19°C plummeted from 0.155c to 0.035c. As the date approaches, weather forecast uncertainty decreases, and the market quickly prices out the probabilities of extreme low and high temperatures.

According to the latest Wunderground weather forecast, the high temperature for Wellington on March ...

This is a typical niche weather prediction market. While routine for Wellington locals or meteorology enthusiasts, forecasting the specific daily high for a specific Southern Hemisphere city is relatively exotic/niche for the average global prediction market participant, compared to elections or major financial events.

March 26, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the price of 21°C surged significantly from 23c to 58.5c, while 22°C plummeted from 44c to 22.5c. The reason is that as the resolution day approaches, updated weather forecast models adjusted the expected high temperature downwards from a hotter bracket, locking it in around 21°C. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of 22°C surged from 16.5c to 29c as the approaching resolution date brought more certainty to the early weather models predicting this higher range. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of 20°C initially spiked from 16.5c to 30.5c (on Mar 24) before retreating back to 16.5c, reflecting rapid market swings due to minor tweaks in forecast models.

There is a noticeable divergence. Wunderground's forecast indicates a high of 68°F (exactly 20°C) for March 27 [3, 10], yet the prediction market prices 21°C at 58.5c, much higher than 20°C at 12.5c. This may be due to traders relying on alternative meteorological sources or carrying over the warmer trend (70°F) from the previous day, having not yet fully priced in the latest official forecast update.

As the target date approaches, the latest meteorological forecasting models (including Wunderground)...

Between March 24 and March 26, 2026, the price of '16°C or higher' plummeted from 38c to 6.5c as approaching weather forecasts ruled out anomalous high temperatures. Between March 24 and March 26, 2026, the price of '13°C' surged from 8.5c to 24.5c, reflecting the convergence of the latest prediction models toward a cooler expected temperature (~13°C-14°C). Between March 23 and March 25, 2026, the price of '15°C' fell from 35.5c to 17.5c before recovering to 22.5c, as short-term weather models fluctuated between 13°C and 16°C, causing capital reallocation among adjacent options. Between March 23 and March 24, 2026, '16°C or higher' spiked to 38c before settling at 20.5c, driven by short-term forecasts indicating an anomalous rise to 61°F. Between March 23 and March 24, 2026, '14°C' rose from 14.5c to 26c and eventually stabilized around 20c, reflecting a market consensus as forecasts gradually converged toward the median.

Based on the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature in Miami on March 27 is expected to be b...

Between March 23 and March 25, 2026, the price for 84-85°F dropped significantly from 28.5c to 13.5c as weather forecasts ruled out anomalous heat. Between March 23 and March 25, 2026, the price for 82-83°F surged from 17c to 31.5c before settling at 28.5c as forecasted temperatures converged on this range. Between March 23 and March 25, 2026, the price for 71°F or below crashed from 24.5c to 0.5c as the possibility of a cold front was eliminated.