Between May 4 and May 5, 2026, the price of '48-49°F' surged from 46.5c to 92.5c, while '45°F or below' plummeted from 24.5c to nearly zero. This occurred because local time in Denver crossed into midnight on May 5; with a cold front moving in, the daily high was locked in at the midnight reading of around 48-49°F.

May 3, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of the 20°C option surged from 15c to 45c, while the 18°C option plummeted from 35c to 5c. This was driven by updated weather forecasts nearing the resolution date, which adjusted the expected high temperature upwards to around 19°C - 20°C (67°F), largely ruling out the likelihood of cooler temperatures.

While weather markets are an established subcategory in prediction markets, betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific city is a relatively niche and novelty topic, far from major events of broad public interest.

May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of 30°C surged from 22c to 64.5c as actual temperature readings on the resolution day climbed, confirming a higher intraday peak. May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of 29°C plummeted from 40c to 0.05c because recorded temperatures decisively breached the 29°C threshold. May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of 31°C spiked from 6c to a high of 44c (settling at 31.5c) due to the possibility that the daily high could marginally touch 31°C before the day ends.

There is a slight contradiction in the rules: the text refers to the highest temperature recorded by the 'Forecast', yet the provided link points to the 'history' page. Since historical records and forecasts are distinct, this ambiguous phrasing could lead to resolution disputes. Additionally, relying on a third-party source with whole-degree rounding introduces the risk of discrepancies with official local weather data.

May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of the 33°C option surged from 35.5c to 58.5c, and the 32°C option also rose from 48c to 56.5c. This was caused by the rapid rise in actual morning temperatures, prompting the market to heavily revise high-temperature expectations based on real-time weather observations. May 1, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the prices of all options remained relatively stable without any option moving more than 10 cents, as market expectations consolidated around the 31°C to 33°C range.

May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of 18°C plummeted from around 27c to 9.5c, while the price of 17°C surged from 39c to 52c. The reason is that as the expiration day approached, the latest weather forecasts clearly indicated that the high is unlikely to reach 18°C, and is more likely to stay around 17°C. May 4, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of 16°C surged from 11.5c to around 33c. The reason is that weather forecast models were revised downwards slightly as the resolution day approached. May 3, 2026 - May 4, 2026, the price of 17°C surged from 21c to 48.5c, 18°C spiked from 13.5c to 46.5c before retracting, while 16°C plummeted from 38.5c to 13c. This was due to updated weather forecasts at the time showing highs of 17°C-18°C, pricing out lower temperature outcomes.