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Wolves
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Nottm Forest
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Burnley
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Tottenham
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West Ham
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Leeds
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AI Insights:
03.14 05:23 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although Wolves have experienced significant price volatility (correcting from 71c back to 53c), suggesting they likely secured critical points, the incumbent 20th-placed team (Wolves) statistically faces higher odds of finishing last than the 19th-placed team (Burnley). The market is currently pricing this as a near 50/50 toss-up (53 vs 44), which likely overweights Wolves' recent momentum (Recency Bias) and underestimates the foundational difficulty of closing a points gap late in the season. With fewer games remaining, Wolves should still be considered a slightly heavier favorite than the market suggests, with a fair value around 58c.
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Movers
Mar 12, 2026 - Mar 14, 2026, Wolves' price experienced a rollercoaster volatility. On Mar 12, the price spiked to 71.8c (with Burnley dropping to 26.1c), indicating the market was extremely bearish on Wolves' survival chances. However, just one day later on Mar 13, Wolves' price crashed back down to 53.2c (Burnley rebounded to 41.4c), erasing the previous spike. This extreme 'Zig-Zag' pattern typically suggests consecutive reversal results during a tight schedule (e.g., mid-week fixtures), causing market sentiment to flip rapidly between 'despair' and 'hope'.
Feb 28, 2026 - Mar 5, 2026, Wolves' price plunged from 84.3c to 55.5c due to unexpected victories against top teams (like Liverpool), dragging the 'Last Place' race from a certainty back into a competitive two-horse race.
Divergence
The market pricing (Wolves 53c vs Burnley 44c) implies the probability of finishing last is extremely close, with less than a 10% gap. However, historical data-driven soccer prediction models (like Opta or SPI) typically weight 'points on the board' much higher than 'recent form'. With only ~9 games left and a points deficit, the trailing team (Wolves) would typically be assessed by models as having a 60%-70% probability of finishing last. The market appears to be overly influenced by the narrative of recent match results, leaving Wolves undervalued relative to statistical baselines.
