All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Chelsea
YesNo
Brentford
YesNo
Leeds
YesNo
Everton
YesNo
Liverpool
YesNo
Fulham
YesNo
Aston Villa
YesNo
Crystal Palace
YesNo
Manchester United
YesNo
Sunderland
YesNo
Nottingham Forest
YesNo
West Ham
YesNo
Newcastle
YesNo
Brighton
YesNo
Tottenham
YesNo
Bournemouth
YesNo
Manchester City
YesNo
Arsenal
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 23:34 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
1. **Top 2 Locked**: Arsenal (99c) and Man City (98c) remain virtually guaranteed finishers, with prices accurately reflecting near 100% certainty. 2. **United Consolidates**: Manchester United's price rise to 84c aligns with their points advantage over Villa and games in hand. Their fair value lies between 85c-88c given current momentum. 3. **The Battle for 4th (Liverpool vs Villa vs Chelsea)**: This is the main volatility driver. While Villa (40.25c) might be higher in the table, the market correctly prices Liverpool (45.5c) slightly higher due to pedigree and squad depth. Chelsea (32.5c) remains overpriced; given the points gap and traffic ahead, their true probability is likely sub-30%. 4. **Longshot Correction**: Nottingham Forest has correctly crashed from an anomalous 7.5c back to ~0.5c. Brentford (6.3c) remains slightly overpriced for a team with negligible realistic chances.
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Hedging
MANU
This event is primarily correlated with publicly traded football club stocks. Manchester United (MANU) is listed on the NYSE; securing a top-4 finish (and thus Champions League qualification) has significant financial implications for future broadcasting revenue and commercial value, enough to move the stock price. Other options like Tottenham or Arsenal may have indirect links or private ownership, making MANU the most direct hedge.
Movers
Mar 15, 2026 - Mar 17, 2026, Manchester United steadily rose from 74.5c to 84c. The market is increasingly pricing in their solidified Top 4 status following the victory over Villa, compounded by inconsistent results from chasers like Chelsea and Liverpool.
Mar 16, 2026 - Mar 17, 2026, Nottingham Forest crashed from 7.45c back to 0.45c. The previous spike was a clear market anomaly (manipulation or fat-finger), and the price has now corrected to reflect their relegation-battling reality.
Mar 14, 2026 - Mar 16, 2026, Manchester United surged from 66.5c to 82.5c. The catalyst was a decisive 3-1 head-to-head victory over Aston Villa, allowing United to overtake Villa in the standings and open a 3-point cushion, fundamentally shifting the Top 4 race.
Divergence
There is a significant divergence regarding Chelsea. Based on implied probabilities from bookmaker odds, Chelsea's chances of a Top 4 finish are likely in the 15%-20% range due to the points deficit and limited games remaining. However, the Polymarket price trades at a premium of 32.5c. This suggests heavy retail or fan sentiment driving the price well above its fair value derived from statistical models or professional bookmakers.
