All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Arsenal
YesNo
Man City
YesNo
Man United
YesNo
Aston Villa
YesNo
Chelsea
YesNo
Liverpool
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 20:09 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 17, 2026, market prices have remained extremely stable over the last 24 hours, with Arsenal holding at 89.5c and Man City dipping slightly to 8.5c. This price action suggests the market has fully digested the current league table, where Arsenal likely holds a lead of 3+ games (9+ points). With only ~70 days remaining, the mathematical probability of a Man City comeback is rapidly converging to zero. The current 90/9 pricing alignment fits the profile of a 'runaway leader' scenario in the late Premier League season, entering a low-volatility waiting period.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'Yes' on all available options (Dutching Strategy)
Plan Description:
A minor risk-free arbitrage opportunity exists. The sum of 'Yes' prices for all 7 options is approximately 98.65c (89.5 + 8.5 + 0.65). Buying a 'Yes' contract for every listed team costs less than 100c, guaranteeing a 100c payout upon settlement (assuming the winner is among these 7 teams, which is a virtual certainty given Arsenal and Man City hold 98% implied probability). The annualized yield is approximately 7%.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 1¢
|Annualized yield: 7%
Hedging
MANU
This event only has a direct, specific correlation with the stock of the listed club Manchester United (MANU). A league title win would significantly boost its commercial revenue outlook and stock price. Otherwise, the sporting outcome has no correlation with broad indices or macroeconomic assets.
