All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Tottenham
YesNo
West Ham
YesNo
Leeds
YesNo
Nottm Forest
YesNo
Burnley
YesNo
Brentford
YesNo
Sunderland
YesNo
Everton
YesNo
Crystal Palace
YesNo
Bournemouth
YesNo
Fulham
YesNo
Brighton
YesNo
Newcastle
YesNo
Aston Villa
YesNo
Liverpool
YesNo
Chelsea
YesNo
Wolves
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 21:07 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Despite Tottenham's price rebound to 29c, fundamentals do not justify this valuation. With a point advantage and superior squad depth, their true relegation probability (Fair Value) should range between 15-20%. The market is exhibiting a significant 'big club panic premium'. Conversely, West Ham (35.5c) is statistically the most vulnerable for the third spot due to points (28) and goal difference, yet is priced similarly to Spurs; their FV should be nearer to 50%. Nottingham Forest is similarly at risk but fairly priced. Leeds is overvalued (14c vs FV 5c) relative to their points cushion. Burnley and Wolves are effectively locked.
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Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No' Basket: Buy No on West Ham, Nottm Forest, Tottenham, and Leeds simultaneously.
Plan Description:
A high-probability statistical arbitrage exists. Assuming Wolves (Yes 0.9765) and Burnley (Yes 0.9935) take two relegation spots, only one of West Ham, Forest, Spurs, or Leeds will likely take the third spot. This implies three of these four will survive (three 'No' contracts will pay out). The total cost to buy 'No' on all four is ~289.65c (64.5+68.5+70.65+86). Unless Wolves or Burnley miraculously escape, this basket pays out 300c, yielding a profit of ~10.35c. The primary risk is a Wolves survival, which is priced at <3% probability.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 10¢
|Annualized yield: 18.6%
Hedging
MANU
Relegation from the EPL has massive financial implications (loss of broadcast revenue and brand value) for listed clubs like Manchester United (MANU). While relegation is highly unlikely for a giant like Man Utd, if it were to happen, the stock impact would be catastrophic (Score 5). For other non-listed clubs, there are no direct tickers. Overall, this acts as a specific equity risk event.
Movers
March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026: Tottenham's price rebounded from 24.15c to 29.35c, driven by a technical correction after the previous day's massive sell-off (14c drop) and traders reassessing remaining fixture risks.
March 15, 2026 - March 16, 2026: Tottenham's price crashed from 38.15c to 24.15c as they secured a crucial point over the weekend to stay above the drop zone, causing rapid unwinding of previous panic positions.
March 12, 2026 - March 15, 2026: Tottenham's price climbed slowly from 34.3c to 38.15c, reflecting lingering market fears following their loss to Crystal Palace.
Divergence
There is a significant divergence between the market and mainstream data models. Predictive models (like Opta or FiveThirtyEight styles) heavily weight goal difference and points trends, making West Ham the clear statistical favorite for the third drop spot (>45%). However, Polymarket prices Tottenham at nearly 30%, driven by the narrative appeal of a 'big club' relegation and recency bias regarding their poor form, rather than pure statistical probability.
