Ethereum above ___ on April 5?
Crypto|$10.2k Vol|
time6 days 8 hrs

Ethereum above ___ on April 5? - AI Found +23.2¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+23.2¢
1,900(No)
+19.8¢
2,000(No)
+18.7¢
1,800(No)

Ethereum above ___ on April 5? AI analysis: • +23.2¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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Highest temperature in Chicago on April 1?
Weather|$10.7k Vol|
time2 days 4 hrs

Highest temperature in Chicago on April 1?

Top Undervalued
+43.3¢
36-37°F(Yes)
+43.2¢
38-39°F(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts (especially Wunderground), the highest temperature at Chic...
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Movers
On March 29, 2026, the price of '33°F or below' plummeted from 25.5c to 0.55c, and '36-37°F' plummeted from 17.5c to 1.95c, as updated meteorological models ruled out extreme cold scenarios. On March 29, 2026, the price of '46-47°F' dropped from 25c to 12.5c, reflecting the convergence of short-term weather forecasts.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Polymarket currently prices '52°F or higher' as the favorite (40.5%), yet mainstream weather forecasts (including the official resolution source Wunderground) explicitly state that Chicago's temperature on April 1 will be between 35°F and 38°F, far below 52°F. This disconnect is likely due to stale early bets or excessive hedging not catching up to the latest meteorological models.
AI Analysis
What are the exact resolution criteria for the Wunderground high temperature data at Chicago O'Hare (KORD) on April 1st, and is there any risk of delayed capital lock-up while waiting for the data to finalize?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 1?
Weather|$17.5k Vol|
time2 days 4 hrs

Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 1?

Top Undervalued
+6¢
24°C(Yes)
+6¢
23°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to current prediction market data, the Yes price for 24°C is around 48.5c, making it the m...
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Movers
March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the 24°C option rose from about 30c to 48.5c, as weather forecasts gained certainty for this temperature range as the date approached. March 28, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the price of the 23°C option briefly spiked from 15.5c to 46.5c before falling back to 16c, reflecting fluctuations and corrections in forecast models between 23°C and 24°C. March 28, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the price of the 22°C option peaked from 6c to 30.5c before settling at 12.7c, also due to volatility from short-term forecast uncertainty. March 28, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the price of the 26°C option spiked from 9c to 35.75c before dropping to around 4c, indicating that the forecast for extreme heat was ruled out by the models.
AI Analysis
How exactly is the winning temperature determined for Mexico City on April 1st, and what happens if Wunderground revises its data after the fact?
Will Congress pass any tariffs by March 31?
Economy|$25.3k Vol|
time16 hrs 10 mins

Will Congress pass any tariffs by March 31?

Top Undervalued
+0.2¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than two days remaining until the March 31 deadline, there is no indication or procedural ...
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Hedging
DXY
If Congress actually passes a bill explicitly creating tariffs, it would be a significant macroeconomic event. Tariffs generally raise import costs and inflation expectations, thereby pushing up the Dollar Index (DXY) and US Treasury yields. For equities (S&P 500), this is a bearish signal due to higher costs, particularly for multinationals and retailers. While the short timeline makes passage unlikely, if it were to happen, the market shock would be medium to high, warranting hedging.
Jerome Powell arrested by March 31?
Trump|$78.9k Vol|
time16 hrs 10 mins

Jerome Powell arrested by March 31?

Top Undervalued
0¢
(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than 1 day left until the March 31 deadline, there are no signs or credible reports indica...
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Exotics
This is a highly exotic and conspiracy-driven market. It is an absurd and fringe question, given there is absolutely no credible evidence or mainstream reporting suggesting the Federal Reserve Chairman is at risk of arrest by law enforcement.
Hedging
Bitcoin
US 10Y Yield
Gold
S&P 500
DXY
Although the probability is infinitesimally small, if Jerome Powell were actually arrested, it would be an unprecedented 'Black Swan' event causing an instant collapse of global financial order. As the head of the world's central bank, his legal jeopardy directly impacts the credibility of the USD and the stability of US monetary policy. If realized, equity markets would crash in panic, Treasury yields would fluctuate violently (flight to safety or credit collapse), and Gold/Bitcoin would react sharply as safe havens or chaos hedges.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze if the current 'Yes' price is driven by 'End the Fed' political sentiment. Check the order book depth with $34k volume to identify bid-ask spread arbitrage opportunities and assess the tail risk of shorting 'Yes'.
Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31?
Politics|$191.4k Vol|
time16 hrs 10 mins

Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31?

Top Undervalued
0¢
(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As of March 29, 2026, with less than 2 days until market expiration, Netanyahu remains tied up with ...
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Exotics
This is a moderately exotic market. While Netanyahu is a high-profile leader whose travels are news, predicting a specific visit to a specific city (NYC) within a short timeframe is speculative and not a guaranteed scheduled event like an election. It falls into the category of geopolitical gossip/logistics forecasting.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the corresponding Event to analyze the Order Book and user discussions, and update the assessment of fair value, arbitrage strategies, and risks.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
1,900
YesNo
81¢
20¢
56.8¢
43.2¢
0¢
+23.2¢
2,000
YesNo
64¢
40¢
40.2¢
59.8¢
0¢
+19.8¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Negative Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0430, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Negative Factor 2: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0630, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Negative Factor 3: Weekly Price Change, -0.0020, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Negative Factor 4: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, -0.0630, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Negative Factor 5: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, -0.0110, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average

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Ethereum above ___ on April 5? - AI Found +23.2¢ Mispricing