Ethereum above ___ on April 6?
Crypto|$10.3k Vol|
time6 days 9 hrs

Ethereum above ___ on April 6? - AI Found +16.3¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+16.3¢
1,900(No)
+15.7¢
2,000(No)
+11.6¢
1,800(No)

Ethereum above ___ on April 6? AI analysis: • +16.3¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Highest temperature in Madrid on April 1?
Weather|$14.2k Vol|
time1 days 5 hrs

Highest temperature in Madrid on April 1?

Top Undervalued
+18.5¢
20°C(No)
+13.5¢
18°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest forecasts from Wunderground and other meteorological platforms, the high tem...
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Movers
March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the 22°C option plummeted from 19c to 8.5c because weather forecasts adjusted towards cooler temperatures, drastically lowering the probability of higher temperatures.
AI Analysis
How will the highest temperature on April 1 at Madrid-Barajas Airport be determined using Wunderground data, and what are the specific whole-degree Celsius recording and data finalization rules?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 1?
Weather|$19.4k Vol|
time1 days 5 hrs

Highest temperature in NYC on April 1?

Top Undervalued
+10¢
76-77°F(No)
+6.7¢
82-83°F(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on mainstream weather forecasts from AccuWeather and NWS, the high temperature at LaGuardia on...
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Movers
On March 29, 2026, the price of '82-83°F' surged from 9.5c to 28.5c, '69°F or below' plummeted from 25.5c to 10.5c, and '86-87°F' dropped from 18c to 2.9c. This was driven by converging meteorological model consensus on the strength of a warm air ridge, largely ruling out a cold Canadian trough (below 69°F) and extreme anomalous heat (above 86°F), causing capital to cluster in the low 80s range.
Divergence
Divergence exists. First, the total implied probability in the market is near 191%, indicating irrational retail overbuying. Second, mainstream meteorological outlets (like AccuWeather and NWS) are forecasting a high around 74-78°F for LaGuardia on April 1, whereas the highest-priced options on Polymarket are 82-83°F and 80-81°F. This shows speculative capital heavily over-betting on a strong warming anomaly, deviating from baseline deterministic weather forecasts.
AI Analysis
Based on historical weather data for LaGuardia Airport, how frequently does the high temperature on April 1st reach or exceed the 70°F to 88°F brackets?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on April 1?
Weather|$18.8k Vol|
time1 days 5 hrs

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on April 1?

Top Undervalued
+5¢
26°C(No)
+5¢
30°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Recent weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature for Buenos Aires Ezeiza airport (SAEZ) o...
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Movers
March 29, 2026, the price of 31°C surged from 13.5c to 34c, driven by irrational buying in an illiquid market. March 29, 2026, the price of 35°C or higher spiked from 2.05c to 25.25c, similarly indicating extreme weather speculation or poor liquidity manipulation. March 29, 2026, prices for 27°C, 29°C, and 30°C also saw wild swings of over 10c, reflecting high sensitivity to shifting short-term forecasts and capital wrestling as the expiration date approaches.
Divergence
There is a significant divergence between market pricing and mainstream weather forecasts. Major meteorological sources predict a high of 27°C to 29°C for Buenos Aires on April 1, yet Polymarket participants are heavily pricing in 31°C and 35°C+ (combining for nearly 60% probability), completely detaching from scientific short-term forecasting reality.
AI Analysis
How exactly will the highest temperature be determined using the Wunderground SAEZ station data for April 1, and what is the market's resolution rule if the data is revised after being finalized?
NCAA Tournament: Team to make National Championship
Sports|$35.7k Vol|
time5 days 17 hrs

NCAA Tournament: Team to make National Championship

Top Undervalued
+20¢
Michigan(No)
+1.5¢
Arizona(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The total sum of current market prices (approx. 200.75%) perfectly aligns with the structural charac...
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Movers
March 28, 2026 - March 30, 2026, Michigan's price surged from 24.5c to 58c, as the team won its Elite Eight matchup to advance to the Final Four. March 28, 2026 - March 30, 2026, Illinois's price surged from 35.5c to 62c, because the team won a crucial game to advance to the Final Four. March 28, 2026 - March 30, 2026, UConn's price surged from 24c to 47.75c, due to the team successfully advancing to the Final Four. March 28, 2026 - March 29, 2026, Iowa's price crashed from 22.75c to 0.05c, because the team was eliminated from the tournament. March 27, 2026 - March 29, 2026, Arizona's price surged from 31.5c to 56.5c, as the team won its matchup and advanced to the next round. March 27, 2026 - March 28, 2026, Duke's price spiked from 21c to 54c, due to a key tournament victory significantly increasing their championship odds. March 26, 2026 - March 29, 2026, Illinois's price jumped from 14.5c to 40c, driven by their consecutive wins advancing deep into the tournament.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Retrieve the latest odds for the 2026 NCAA Tournament on Polymarket, analyze the order book depth and liquidity for top teams (e.g., Duke, UConn), and update the fair value assessment based on the latest KenPom rankings.
Kanye West 'BULLY' First Week Album Sales?
Culture|$63.1k Vol|
time5 days 17 hrs

Kanye West 'BULLY' First Week Album Sales?

Top Undervalued
+6.5¢
<300k(No)
+6¢
300k-400k(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Given that Kanye West's new album 'BULLY' was scheduled for release on March 27, 2026, the market cu...
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Rule Risk
The primary risk lies in Kanye West's notorious history of delays. The rule dictates that if unreleased by April 30, it resolves to the 'lowest bracket (<300k),' posing a massive risk for bettors bullish on sales figures. Additionally, resolution uses HDD's 'Activity' column (SPS consumption), not pure album sales as the title might suggest.
Movers
March 30, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the '<300k' option fluctuated from 82c to 89.5c (peaking at 94.5c), while the '300k-400k' option plummeted from 15c to 8.9c (dropping as low as 4c). This was due to the passing of the scheduled March 27 release date with no strong debut data or a confirmed delay, further solidifying the market's expectation of a delay past April 30 (defaulting to the lowest bracket) or dismal sales. March 27, 2026 - March 28, 2026, the price of the '<300k' option surged from 57.5c to 84.5c, while the '300k-400k' option plummeted from 33c to 8.5c. This was likely due to the passing of the scheduled March 27 release date without a strong debut or a delay, significantly increasing the probability of a sub-300k performance or a non-release default.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the extremely low volume of $1.25, visit the Polymarket page to check if there is any valid bid/ask depth. Is the current odds distribution severely distorted, creating arbitrage or market-making opportunities for options like '<300k' (which covers the delay scenario) or '300k-400k'?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
1,900
YesNo
84¢
20¢
63.7¢
36.3¢
0¢
+16.3¢
2,000
YesNo
66¢
38¢
46.3¢
53.7¢
0¢
+15.7¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Positive Factor 1: Weekly Price Change, 0.0200, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Positive Factor 2: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, 0.0100, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average Negative Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0160, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Negative Factor 2: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0420, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Negative Factor 3: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, -0.0420, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Negative Factor 4: Volume-Price Divergence Signal, 1.0000, Impact-Strong, Factor description Potential trap signal: detect divergence where price rises but volume decreases

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