Ethereum above ___ on May 2?
Crypto|$10.2k Vol|
time4 days 22 hrs

Ethereum above ___ on May 2? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+9.9¢
2,300(Yes)
+9.3¢
2,400(Yes)
+4.4¢
2,200(Yes)

Ethereum above ___ on May 2? AI analysis: • +9.9¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 29?
Weather|$10.9k Vol|
time1 days 18 hrs

Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 29?

Top Undervalued
+4.5¢
16°C(Yes)
+3.6¢
17°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecast data, Shanghai Pudong International Airport (ZSPD) is expected ...
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AI Analysis
How reliable is the Wunderground data for the Shanghai Pudong Airport (ZSPD) station, and what are the settlement risks if the station experiences missing data or fails to properly record the high temperature on April 29?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 29?
Weather|$12.5k Vol|
time1 days 18 hrs

Highest temperature in Seoul on April 29?

Top Undervalued
+36.5¢
19°C or higher(No)
+6.9¢
15°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Recent weather forecasts indicate that the highest temperature at Incheon International Airport (RKS...
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Rule Risk
The title asks for the highest temperature in Seoul, but the resolution rules explicitly specify using data from Incheon International Airport (RKSI). Temperatures between Seoul city and the coastal Incheon airport often differ, posing a significant trap for traders relying solely on Seoul forecasts. Additionally, the rule uses whole degrees Celsius, introducing rounding risks.
Divergence
Market pricing significantly diverges from the consensus of weather forecasts. The market assigns unusually high probabilities (over 20% each) to 13°C, 14°C, and 15°C, whereas mainstream meteorological forecasts (like AccuWeather and the Aviation Meteorological Office) project highs specifically between 17°C and 19°C for RKSI on April 29. The market is severely overestimating the likelihood of lower temperatures.
AI Analysis
When exactly is the highest temperature data for Incheon Intl Airport (RKSI) on Wunderground considered 'finalized' for April 29, and are there potential dispute risks regarding timezone differences or the whole-degree Celsius rounding rules?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 28?
Weather|$23.4k Vol|
time18 hrs 30 mins

Highest temperature in Beijing on April 28?

Top Undervalued
+10.5¢
23°C(No)
+9.5¢
21°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on current weather forecast trends and seasonal data, the highest temperature in Beijing in la...
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Rule Risk
The title broadly refers to Beijing, but resolution strictly relies on a single weather station (ZBAA) via Wunderground. Rounding to whole degrees and ignoring post-finalization revisions could cause disputes if equipment glitches or data synchronization delays occur.
AI Analysis
How can we verify the specific highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport (ZBAA) station on Wunderground, and what are the exact rules to watch out for when determining the final Celsius reading on April 28?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 28?
Weather|$18.3k Vol|
time18 hrs 30 mins

Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 28?

Top Undervalued
+19¢
64-65°F(No)
+4.2¢
60-61°F(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature at San Francisco International Airpo...
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Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream weather forecasts (e.g., AccuWeather) explicitly predict that the high temperature at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) on April 28 will reach 69°F, and CBS forecasts 67°F. However, the 'Yes' price for '66°F or higher' in the prediction market is only 28c, implying a 28% probability. This indicates that the market is severely lagging behind the latest meteorological data, presenting a substantial cognitive bias.
AI Analysis
Explain in the simplest terms the resolution criteria and win/loss conditions for the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) on April 28, based on Wunderground data.
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 28?
Weather|$16.8k Vol|
time18 hrs 30 mins

Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 28?

Top Undervalued
+25¢
25°C or below(No)
+8.5¢
28°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on historical climate data and recent meteorological forecasts for Sao Paulo Guarulhos (SBGR) ...
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Exotics
While weather derivatives are an established niche, predicting the exact high temperature for a specific city on a specific day is relatively novel for the general public, typically only attracting weather enthusiasts or locals.
AI Analysis
Check the historical weather data for Sao Paulo in late April. What is the historical frequency of temperatures reaching 30°C or higher at the Guarulhos Airport during this time of the year?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
2,300
YesNo
44¢
56¢
53.9¢
46.1¢
+9.9¢
0¢
2,400
YesNo
18.5¢
81.5¢
27.8¢
72.2¢
+9.3¢
0¢

Expand to view all 10 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Positive Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.1000, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Positive Factor 2: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0260, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Positive Factor 3: Weekly Price Change, 0.0020, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Positive Factor 4: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, 0.0260, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Positive Factor 5: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, 0.0140, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average Negative Factor 1: Volume-Price Divergence Signal, 1.0000, Impact-Strong, Factor description Potential trap signal: detect divergence where price rises but volume decreases

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