Ethereum price on May 5?
Crypto|$10.5k Vol|
time1 days 7 hrs

Ethereum price on May 5? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+5.6¢
2,300-2,400(No)
+4.4¢
2,400-2,500(Yes)
+1.8¢
2,500-2,600(Yes)

Ethereum price on May 5? AI analysis: • +5.6¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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Highest temperature in Cape Town on May 4?
Weather|$17.7k Vol|
time3 hrs 31 mins

Highest temperature in Cape Town on May 4?

Top Undervalued
+17.5¢
18°C(No)
+13.5¢
19°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Recent weather forecasts indicate that the highest temperature at Cape Town International Airport on...
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Exotics
While weather prediction markets are somewhat common on specific platforms, betting on the exact maximum temperature in Cape Town on a specific date remains a relatively niche and novel topic for the general public.
Movers
Between May 2, 2026, and May 3, 2026, the price of the 19°C option surged from 21.5c to 45c due to updated weather models leaning toward a high of 19°C. Between May 2, 2026, and May 3, 2026, the 17°C option plummeted from 35.5c to 13c as forecasts near the resolution date made it highly unlikely for the high to stay at 17°C. No significant price movements exceeding 10 cents were observed prior to this.
AI Analysis
How frequently does Wunderground update the temperature data for the Cape Town International Airport Station (FACT), and what exactly does 'finalized data' mean for resolving this market?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 4?
Weather|$15.5k Vol|
time3 hrs 31 mins

Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 4?

Top Undervalued
+7¢
62-63°F(No)
+2¢
60-61°F(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature at San Francisco International Ai...
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Exotics
Predicting the daily temperature for a specific city is a common, niche entertainment topic in prediction markets. It is not a major macro event, but it is also not bizarre or deeply unusual.
Movers
May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 62-63°F option surged from 21c to 54c because, as May 4 approaches, high-resolution forecast models point to this range as the most likely outcome. May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 64-65°F option rose from 13c to 33.5c before dropping to 26.5c, due to fluctuations in updated weather models. May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 60-61°F option fluctuated significantly, peaking at 31c before falling to 11.5c, indicating that the forecasted high shifted to above 61°F.
AI Analysis
Search historical weather data to determine the actual frequency of the daily high temperature falling into these specific brackets (e.g., 60-61°F, 62-63°F) at the San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) during early May over the past few years.
Highest temperature in Miami on May 4?
Weather|$84.0k Vol|
time3 hrs 31 mins

Highest temperature in Miami on May 4?

Top Undervalued
+36.5¢
80-81°F(Yes)
+18.3¢
84-85°F(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts on the morning of May 4, 2026, the high temperature in Mia...
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Movers
May 3, 2026 - May 4, 2026, the price of '82-83°F' quickly retreated from 61c to 38.5c, while '80-81°F' rebounded from 15.5c to 27.5c. The reason is that the latest weather forecasts on the resolution day showed that, due to thunderstorms, the high temperature is more likely to stay in the 80-81°F range. May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of '82-83°F' surged from 15.5c to a peak of 61c before settling at 49.5c, while '80-81°F' plummeted from 47c to 15.5c, and '78-79°F' fell from 24.5c to 6.5c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, the latest high-resolution short-term weather models confirmed that the cooling effect from the forecasted thunderstorms would be slightly less than previously expected, pinpointing the peak temperature squarely in the 82-83°F range.
Divergence
There is a significant divergence in the market. The '82-83°F' option currently holds the highest price in the prediction market (implying a 43% probability), but multiple mainstream weather forecasts on May 4 (such as Google Weather and local news) set the day's high at 80°F or 81°F. Market traders may not have fully priced in the latest morning forecasts regarding rain and its cooling effects.
AI Analysis
Search historical weather data to calculate the actual occurrence frequency of the highest temperature at Miami Intl Airport falling into the specific option ranges (e.g., 86-87°F, 88-89°F) on May 4th over the past few years.
Highest temperature in Busan on May 4?
Weather|$36.0k Vol|
time3 hrs 31 mins

Highest temperature in Busan on May 4?

Top Undervalued
+10.4¢
22°C(No)
+9.2¢
23°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on current real-time weather observations, the actual temperature at Gimhae International Airp...
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Movers
On May 4, 2026, the price of the 22°C option surged from 7.5c to 89.5c, while the 21°C option crashed from 82.5c to 0c. This occurred because the actual recorded temperature in the afternoon broke past 21°C and reached 22°C, instantly invalidating the lower temperature options. Between May 2, 2026, and May 4, 2026, due to the lack of sufficient historical data on price spikes and no option experiencing a price movement of over 10 cents, no significant sudden price movements had been previously observed.
AI Analysis
How frequently does the Wunderground station at Gimhae Intl Airport (RKPK) update its daily highest temperature, and is there any risk of resolution delays due to data outages?
Highest temperature in Singapore on May 4?
Weather|$162.8k Vol|
time3 hrs 31 mins

Highest temperature in Singapore on May 4?

Top Undervalued
+14.7¢
31°C(No)
+14.7¢
32°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Actual meteorological data and latest forecasts for Singapore Changi Airport on May 4 indicate that ...
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Exotics
Predicting the daily highest temperature of a specific city belongs to meteorological prediction markets. While common on these platforms, it still carries a sense of novelty and a strong betting nature for the general public.
Movers
May 4, 2026 (00:53) - May 4, 2026 (07:23): The price of the 31°C option surged from 14c to 84.5c. As the peak temperature hours of the day passed, actual observational data indicated that the high did not exceed 31°C, making this outcome nearly certain. May 3, 2026 (10:48) - May 3, 2026 (15:08): The price of the 33°C option surged from 16.5c to 42c, driven by real-time updates in weather forecasting models that indicated a lower probability of precipitation and decreased cloud cover, increasing the chances of higher temperatures. May 3, 2026 (06:28) - May 3, 2026 (12:58): The price of the 31°C option spiked from 17c to 39.5c before dropping, as fluctuating expectations regarding afternoon thunderstorms caused the market to rapidly swing between 31°C and 33°C.
AI Analysis
Historically, how often has Singapore Changi Airport hit a high of 35°C or higher in early May?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
2,300-2,400
YesNo
57¢
43¢
51.4¢
48.6¢
0¢
+5.6¢
2,400-2,500
YesNo
24.5¢
75.5¢
28.9¢
71.1¢
+4.4¢
0¢

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⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Positive Factor 1: Daily MA10 Deviation Rate, 0.0060, Impact-Strong, Factor description Short-term defense line: deviation of price relative to the 10-day moving average Positive Factor 2: Intraday Volatility Exhaustion Rate, 0.0920, Impact-Medium, Factor description Volatility exhaustion: today range relative to the 14-day average range Negative Factor 1: VWAP Deviation Rate, -0.0210, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday average cost: percentage deviation of price relative to intraday VWAP Negative Factor 2: Hourly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0000, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday trend direction: deviation of price relative to the 60-hour moving average (~2.5 days) Negative Factor 3: Hourly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0110, Impact-Strong, Factor description Institutional control indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-hour moving average

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