All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Finland
YesNo
France
YesNo
Greece
YesNo
Australia
YesNo
Denmark
YesNo
Sweden
YesNo
United Kingdom
YesNo
Norway
YesNo
Israel
YesNo
Italy
YesNo
Belgium
YesNo
Portugal
YesNo
Poland
YesNo
Cyprus
YesNo
Malta
YesNo
Switzerland
YesNo
Croatia
YesNo
Moldova
YesNo
Luxembourg
YesNo
Czechia
YesNo
Armenia
YesNo
Lithuania
YesNo
Romania
YesNo
Azerbaijan
YesNo
Austria
YesNo
Bulgaria
YesNo
Serbia
YesNo
Georgia
YesNo
Ukraine
YesNo
Montenegro
YesNo
Albania
YesNo
San Marino
YesNo
Latvia
YesNo
Estonia
YesNo
Germany
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.10 00:11 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on external market data from March 2026 (e.g., Oddschecker and simulated Polymarket data), Finland (Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen) is the clear favorite with ~35% win probability. France (Monroe) and Denmark (Søren Torpegaard Lund) are rising contenders in the 10-14% range. Australia's Delta Goodrem is described as a 'jury song,' warranting a higher fair value (12%) in this Jury-specific market compared to the overall winner odds. The current prediction market is severely dislocated, with many entries priced at 49 cents despite negligible real-world chances.
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Divergence
Extreme divergence. The market prices France, Portugal, Sweden, and others at an impossible 49% each (summing far >100%), while the actual favorite Finland is priced lower at 42.5 cents. This indicates a broken or illiquid market state that fails to reflect the external consensus of Finland being the clear favorite with ~35% odds.
