Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest confirmed participation list and bookmaker odds for Eurovision 2026, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the Order Book depth and user discussions for the 'Last Place' market, and update the assessment of fair value and arbitrage strategies for potential last-place candidates.

AI-powered analysis for: Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest confirmed participation list and bookmaker odds for Eurovision 2026, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the Order Book depth and user discussions for the 'Last Place' market, and update the assessment of fair value and arbitrage strategies for potential last-place candidates.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Core News Sourcing: Search Google News and official Eurovision blogs to find and summarize the most direct news source causing recent volatility or popularity for specific countries (like historical underperformers Germany or UK) in the 'Last Place' market, such as poor national selection performances or song leaks.

AI-powered analysis for: Core News Sourcing: Search Google News and official Eurovision blogs to find and summarize the most direct news source causing recent volatility or popularity for specific countries (like historical underperformers Germany or UK) in the 'Last Place' market, such as poor national selection performances or song leaks.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Resolution Rules (ELI5): Explain the Eurovision Grand Final voting system (50% Jury / 50% Televote) and strictly clarify how the EBU official rules break ties to determine a single 'Last Place' winner if multiple countries end up with zero points or the same score.

AI-powered analysis for: Resolution Rules (ELI5): Explain the Eurovision Grand Final voting system (50% Jury / 50% Televote) and strictly clarify how the EBU official rules break ties to determine a single 'Last Place' winner if multiple countries end up with zero points or the same score.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Key Timeline Check: Search the official Eurovision 2026 schedule (Semi-finals and Grand Final dates) to verify if the Resolution Date is aligned, and check for risks of capital lock-up or option invalidation if a selected country fails to qualify for the Grand Final.

AI-powered analysis for: Key Timeline Check: Search the official Eurovision 2026 schedule (Semi-finals and Grand Final dates) to verify if the Resolution Date is aligned, and check for risks of capital lock-up or option invalidation if a selected country fails to qualify for the Grand Final.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Google Trends Analysis: Check Google Trends data for the top 'Last Place' contenders to determine if there is a lack of public interest or negative buzz, which often correlates with low televote scores.

AI-powered analysis for: Google Trends Analysis: Check Google Trends data for the top 'Last Place' contenders to determine if there is a lack of public interest or negative buzz, which often correlates with low televote scores.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Historical Frequency Statistics: Search historical data from the past 10 years of Eurovision to calculate the actual frequency of countries like Germany, the UK, 'Big 5' members, or micro-states (like San Marino) finishing in last place.

AI-powered analysis for: Historical Frequency Statistics: Search historical data from the past 10 years of Eurovision to calculate the actual frequency of countries like Germany, the UK, 'Big 5' members, or micro-states (like San Marino) finishing in last place.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Traditional Sportsbook Odds Comparison: Search for odds of 'To Finish Last' markets on platforms like Betfair or William Hill for Eurovision 2026 to identify any significant pricing deviations compared to Polymarket.

AI-powered analysis for: Traditional Sportsbook Odds Comparison: Search for odds of 'To Finish Last' markets on platforms like Betfair or William Hill for Eurovision 2026 to identify any significant pricing deviations compared to Polymarket.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Historical Precedents & Disputes: Search community history (Reddit/Discord) for disputes regarding Eurovision rankings, specifically how disqualifications (like the Netherlands in 2024) or tie-breakers for zero points affect the official 'Last Place' designation.

AI-powered analysis for: Historical Precedents & Disputes: Search community history (Reddit/Discord) for disputes regarding Eurovision rankings, specifically how disqualifications (like the Netherlands in 2024) or tie-breakers for zero points affect the official 'Last Place' designation.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

KOL Sentiment Analysis: Search Twitter and major Eurovision blogs (e.g., Wiwibloggs) for recent reactions from influential fans to identify universally disliked songs or performances predicted to flop and potentially score zero points.

AI-powered analysis for: KOL Sentiment Analysis: Search Twitter and major Eurovision blogs (e.g., Wiwibloggs) for recent reactions from influential fans to identify universally disliked songs or performances predicted to flop and potentially score zero points.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Community Disagreement Summary: Extract discussions from the Polymarket comment section to summarize the market's core disagreements, specifically regarding countries that might face political voting boycotts despite decent song quality.

AI-powered analysis for: Community Disagreement Summary: Extract discussions from the Polymarket comment section to summarize the market's core disagreements, specifically regarding countries that might face political voting boycotts despite decent song quality.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Determine whether betting on a perennial underdog (e.g., San Marino) is 'picking up pennies' (high probability, low return) versus 'buying a lottery ticket' on a major country flopping unexpectedly.

AI-powered analysis for: Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Determine whether betting on a perennial underdog (e.g., San Marino) is 'picking up pennies' (high probability, low return) versus 'buying a lottery ticket' on a major country flopping unexpectedly.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Time Decay (Theta) Analysis: Analyze which side benefits more from time decay given that the actual contest is in May 2026, considering the long lock-up period and the risk of early favorites failing to qualify for the final.

AI-powered analysis for: Time Decay (Theta) Analysis: Analyze which side benefits more from time decay given that the actual contest is in May 2026, considering the long lock-up period and the risk of early favorites failing to qualify for the final.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Institutional/Smart Money Tracking: Search for public predictions or quantitative models from specialized Eurovision betting syndicates or experts regarding the most likely last-place finisher.

AI-powered analysis for: Institutional/Smart Money Tracking: Search for public predictions or quantitative models from specialized Eurovision betting syndicates or experts regarding the most likely last-place finisher.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Randomness vs. Predictability Analysis: Analyze the extent to which the 'Last Place' outcome is influenced by random factors like the running order (early slots often fare worse) or technical mishaps, rather than just song quality.

AI-powered analysis for: Randomness vs. Predictability Analysis: Analyze the extent to which the 'Last Place' outcome is influenced by random factors like the running order (early slots often fare worse) or technical mishaps, rather than just song quality.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Net Profit Calculation: Assuming you find odds of 5.0 for a country to finish last on a sportsbook while Polymarket prices it at 20%, calculate the actual ROI for a $1000 arbitrage trade after deducting estimated fees.

AI-powered analysis for: Net Profit Calculation: Assuming you find odds of 5.0 for a country to finish last on a sportsbook while Polymarket prices it at 20%, calculate the actual ROI for a $1000 arbitrage trade after deducting estimated fees.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Risk Premium Assessment: Compare the odds to verify if the market is correctly discounting the risk that a 'bad' country might fail to qualify for the Grand Final entirely, thus rendering a 'Last Place' bet on them a loss.

AI-powered analysis for: Risk Premium Assessment: Compare the odds to verify if the market is correctly discounting the risk that a 'bad' country might fail to qualify for the Grand Final entirely, thus rendering a 'Last Place' bet on them a loss.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Optimal Limit Order Placement: Given the potentially low liquidity (Volume: 50.0), suggest a specific limit order price strategy for entering a position on a potential last-place candidate to avoid massive slippage.

AI-powered analysis for: Optimal Limit Order Placement: Given the potentially low liquidity (Volume: 50.0), suggest a specific limit order price strategy for entering a position on a potential last-place candidate to avoid massive slippage.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Mean Reversion Potential Return: Calculate the potential ROI of shorting a country (e.g., Germany) if its probability of finishing last is hyped to 40% on Polymarket, while historical statistical averages suggest a much lower probability.

AI-powered analysis for: Mean Reversion Potential Return: Calculate the potential ROI of shorting a country (e.g., Germany) if its probability of finishing last is hyped to 40% on Polymarket, while historical statistical averages suggest a much lower probability.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

$10 Lottery Ticket Play: For small-capital users, recommend buying high-payout options on countries that are generally safe but could disastrously flop due to specific variables like political voting blocks or live performance errors.

AI-powered analysis for: $10 Lottery Ticket Play: For small-capital users, recommend buying high-payout options on countries that are generally safe but could disastrously flop due to specific variables like political voting blocks or live performance errors.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

High-Quality Niche Sources Recommendation: Recommend 3 high-quality Twitter accounts or YouTube channels (e.g., Eurovisionworld, ESC United) dedicated to analyzing Eurovision odds, rehearsals, and potential flops.

AI-powered analysis for: High-Quality Niche Sources Recommendation: Recommend 3 high-quality Twitter accounts or YouTube channels (e.g., Eurovisionworld, ESC United) dedicated to analyzing Eurovision odds, rehearsals, and potential flops.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Eurovision Last Place 2026

Culture|$70.9k Vol|

10 days 20 hrs

Eurovision Last Place 2026 - AI Found +17.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.04 16:55

Top Undervalued

+17.5¢

Austria(No)

+14.9¢

Montenegro(No)

+13.5¢

Switzerland(No)

Eurovision Last Place 2026 AI analysis: • +17.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

The sum of implied probabilities across all options is extremely high (well over 100%), indicating s...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Austria

YesNo

27.5¢

72.5¢

10¢

90¢

0¢

+17.5¢

Montenegro

YesNo

16.9¢

83.1¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+14.9¢

Expand to view all 35 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

May 1, 2026 - May 4, 2026, the prices for Portugal, Romania, and Azerbaijan all surged by over 10c, primarily due to speculative buying in a low liquidity market causing outsized price jumps as the event approaches. April 21, 2026 - April 27, 2026, as the event approaches but lacks decisive rehearsal news, no option moved more than 10c, indicating a period of stable but low liquidity. April 16, 2026 - April 19, 2026, no option moved more than 10c recently, largely due to a lack of clear news drivers. Current prices primarily reflect early-stage illiquidity and inefficient pricing. April 14, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the 'Yes' price for the United Kingdom rose from 14c to 26c, while Latvia experienced wide swings. These movements were mainly due to exploratory capital in a highly illiquid market.