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YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 19:14 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Operation Absolute Resolve on January 3, 2026, has been widely confirmed as a hostile US military raid involving casualties among Venezuelan military and Cuban security details. The Trump administration characterizes it as a 'capture' and 'raid,' while Maduro's legal team argues in court that he is a 'kidnapped' 'Prisoner of War' (POW). This adversarial legal and military framing is mutually exclusive with the definition of 'staged/pre-arranged.' With the March 31 deadline imminent and zero credible evidence supporting the 'staged' narrative, the actual probability of 'Yes' is 0.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy Option_'No'
Plan Description:
This is a classic 'Low Risk Yield' opportunity. Although the sum of Yes+No prices is near 100c (no direct arb), buying 'No' at 99.3c is effectively purchasing a certain cash flow. The event has factually occurred in the real world (confirmed as a hostile raid, not staged), and the market is merely waiting for the settlement date. The remaining 0.7c return is compensation for locking capital for two weeks, translating to an annualized yield of approximately 19.5% with virtually no risk.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 1¢
|Annualized yield: 19.5%
Rule Risk
The phrase 'widely and credibly confirmed' introduces significant subjectivity. While the rule states U.S. government statements qualify, ambiguity remains if reports are conflicting or rely solely on Maduro's narrative. Additionally, the definition of 'pre-arranged' is fuzzy; for instance, tacit acquiescence under pressure might be debated as pre-arrangement versus a genuine raid.
Exotics
This market bets on the 'nature' of a geopolitical event (real raid vs. staged theater) rather than its occurrence, falling into the realm of conspiracy theory verification or deep state narratives, which is highly unconventional.
