All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
No IPO by June 30, 2026
YesNo
200–250B
YesNo
400B+
YesNo
350–400B
YesNo
300–350B
YesNo
<200B
YesNo
250–300B
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 04:18 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 16, 2026, only about 105 days remain until the June 30 deadline. For an entity the size of Fannie Mae, an IPO typically requires a public preparation period of at least 3-6 months (S-1 filing, SEC review, roadshow, etc.). There is still no public record of an S-1 filing, making a listing by the end of June operationally virtually impossible. Although the 'No IPO' price has recently dipped to 86 cents, this likely reflects liquidity constraints or irrational speculation rather than fundamental shifts. Based on standard IPO timelines, the true probability of 'No IPO' should be near 100%, and the current market implied 14% chance of an IPO significantly overestimates tail risk.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'Yes' on all options. The sum of current prices for all options is approximately 97.3 cents (0.86 + 0.022 + 0.0305 + 0.0105 + 0.0135 + 0.013 + 0.0235).
Plan Description:
Since the options cover all possible market cap ranges and the 'No IPO' scenario, with continuous intervals and no gaps, buying all options guarantees one winning outcome. This constitutes a risk-free arbitrage opportunity (ignoring transaction fees). Invest 97.3 cents to return 100 cents at maturity.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 2¢
|Annualized yield: 9.6%
Exotics
This is a relatively specialized financial topic. While Fannie Mae is a famous GSE, its potential re-privatization (re-IPO) is primarily discussed within policy circles and hedge funds, rather than the general public, making it a moderately niche market.
Hedging
FNMA
FMCC
This market is highly correlated with the common and preferred stocks of Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC). Any substantive news regarding an IPO would cause extreme volatility in these tickers. Additionally, as a core part of the US mortgage market, their privatization process could have a minor impact on US 10Y Yields due to risk premium shifts.
Divergence
There is significant divergence. Based on SEC procedures and investment banking norms, the probability of completing a massive IPO in the remaining 3.5 months without an S-1 filing is near zero. However, the prediction market currently implies an approx. 14% chance (100 - 86) of an IPO occurring. This deviation likely stems from retail irrational expectations of a 'surprise listing' or simply market liquidity inefficiencies.
