[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest progress of Eli Lilly's Retatrutide Phase 3 clinical trials (TRIUMPH series) and official guidance on NDA submission timing. Analyze the order book depth and spread on Polymarket to assess if the current price fully prices in the strict time window risk required for approval by year-end 2026.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest progress of Eli Lilly's Retatrutide Phase 3 clinical trials (TRIUMPH series) and official guidance on NDA submission timing. Analyze the order book depth and spread on Polymarket to assess if the current price fully prices in the strict time window risk required for approval by year-end 2026.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General/Rules] Key Timeline Check: Search for the "Primary Completion Date" of Retatrutide's Phase 3 trials (e.g., TRIUMPH-1/2/3/4) on ClinicalTrials.gov. Combine this with the FDA's standard review (10 months) or priority review (6 months) cycles to reverse-engineer the latest possible date Eli Lilly must submit the NDA to secure approval by December 31, 2026, and judge the realistic probability of hitting this milestone.

AI-powered analysis for: [General/Rules] Key Timeline Check: Search for the "Primary Completion Date" of Retatrutide's Phase 3 trials (e.g., TRIUMPH-1/2/3/4) on ClinicalTrials.gov. Combine this with the FDA's standard review (10 months) or priority review (6 months) cycles to reverse-engineer the latest possible date Eli Lilly must submit the NDA to secure approval by December 31, 2026, and judge the realistic probability of hitting this milestone.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on Eli Lilly's upcoming earnings call dates or major diabetes/obesity medical conference schedules (e.g., ADA or EASD), predict specific catalyst dates in the next 6 months that could trigger high volatility for Retatrutide. Analyze if positive data release would be sufficient to prompt the FDA to grant "Breakthrough Therapy Designation" to accelerate the approval process.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on Eli Lilly's upcoming earnings call dates or major diabetes/obesity medical conference schedules (e.g., ADA or EASD), predict specific catalyst dates in the next 6 months that could trigger high volatility for Retatrutide. Analyze if positive data release would be sufficient to prompt the FDA to grant "Breakthrough Therapy Designation" to accelerate the approval process.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

Science|$562.7k Vol|

242 days 0 hrs

FDA approves Retatrutide this year? - AI Found 47.4% APY

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 14 hours ago

Top Undervalued

+22¢

(No)

Arbitrage Opportunity

24¢

Arbitrage

47.4%

Annualized yield

FDA approves Retatrutide this year? AI analysis: • +22¢ undervalued • 47.4% arbitrage APY • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Arbitrage Plan:

Buy Option_'No' and hold to expiration. Plan Description: The current price for 'No' is 76c, while its actual probability is close to 98%. Buying 'No' at 76c ...

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Undervalued Options Insights:

Retatrutide's Phase 3 clinical trials (TRIUMPH series) are expected to conclude around mid-2026. Fol...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

YesNo

24¢

76¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+22¢

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Hedging

NVO

LLY

This event is a core catalyst for Eli Lilly (LLY). Retatrutide is viewed as the superior next-gen successor to Zepbound. An approval within 2026 (implying successful trials and expedited review) would significantly boost LLY's valuation premium. Conversely, a CRL (rejection) or delay would force a correction in high-growth expectations, triggering a significant pullback. Competitor Novo Nordisk (NVO) would also experience volatility due to shifting competitive dynamics.

Divergence

The current prediction market assigns a 24% probability of Retatrutide being approved by the end of 2026, which diverges significantly from the consensus in the medical community and among pharmaceutical analysts. Mainstream expert opinion holds that based on the Phase 3 trial timelines and average FDA review speeds, Retatrutide will not be approved until at least 2027. This overvaluation is largely due to retail investors' lack of understanding of the drug development and approval process.