[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest progress of Eli Lilly's Retatrutide Phase 3 clinical trials (TRIUMPH series) and official guidance on NDA submission timing. Analyze the order book depth and spread on Polymarket to assess if the current price fully prices in the strict time window risk required for approval by year-end 2026.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest progress of Eli Lilly's Retatrutide Phase 3 clinical trials (TRIUMPH series) and official guidance on NDA submission timing. Analyze the order book depth and spread on Polymarket to assess if the current price fully prices in the strict time window risk required for approval by year-end 2026.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General/Rules] Key Timeline Check: Search for the "Primary Completion Date" of Retatrutide's Phase 3 trials (e.g., TRIUMPH-1/2/3/4) on ClinicalTrials.gov. Combine this with the FDA's standard review (10 months) or priority review (6 months) cycles to reverse-engineer the latest possible date Eli Lilly must submit the NDA to secure approval by December 31, 2026, and judge the realistic probability of hitting this milestone.

AI-powered analysis for: [General/Rules] Key Timeline Check: Search for the "Primary Completion Date" of Retatrutide's Phase 3 trials (e.g., TRIUMPH-1/2/3/4) on ClinicalTrials.gov. Combine this with the FDA's standard review (10 months) or priority review (6 months) cycles to reverse-engineer the latest possible date Eli Lilly must submit the NDA to secure approval by December 31, 2026, and judge the realistic probability of hitting this milestone.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on Eli Lilly's upcoming earnings call dates or major diabetes/obesity medical conference schedules (e.g., ADA or EASD), predict specific catalyst dates in the next 6 months that could trigger high volatility for Retatrutide. Analyze if positive data release would be sufficient to prompt the FDA to grant "Breakthrough Therapy Designation" to accelerate the approval process.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on Eli Lilly's upcoming earnings call dates or major diabetes/obesity medical conference schedules (e.g., ADA or EASD), predict specific catalyst dates in the next 6 months that could trigger high volatility for Retatrutide. Analyze if positive data release would be sufficient to prompt the FDA to grant "Breakthrough Therapy Designation" to accelerate the approval process.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Science|$543.2k Vol|

287 days 6 hrs

FDA approves Retatrutide this year? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

YesNo

22¢

78¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+21¢

AI Insights:

03.17 08:23 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Based on Eli Lilly's official guidance from the Feb 2026 earnings call, the NDA submission for Retatrutide is targeted for 2026 (likely H2). The FDA standard review cycle is 10 months, and Priority Review is 6 months. Even in the most optimistic 'Mid-2026 submission + Priority Review' scenario, approval would fall in early 2027. With key Phase 3 trials like TRIUMPH-1 still wrapping up, approval within 2026 is regulatorily impossible.

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Arbitrage|Low Risk

Arbitrage Plan:

Buy Option_'No'

Plan Description:

The market price (No=77c) implies a 23% probability for 'Yes', while the actual approval probability is near 0%. This is a low-risk value play based on hard regulatory timeline constraints, effectively buying $1.00 for 77 cents.

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Arbitrage: 23¢

|

Annualized yield: 37.7%

Hedging

LLY

NVO

This event is a core catalyst for Eli Lilly (LLY). Retatrutide is viewed as the superior next-gen successor to Zepbound. An approval within 2026 (implying successful trials and expedited review) would significantly boost LLY's valuation premium. Conversely, a CRL (rejection) or delay would force a correction in high-growth expectations, triggering a significant pullback. Competitor Novo Nordisk (NVO) would also experience volatility due to shifting competitive dynamics.

Divergence

Significant divergence. The market price (23c) implies a 23% chance of approval, whereas mainstream pharma analysts and Lilly's official guidance point to a 2027 approval. The market is severely ignoring the mandatory 10-month FDA review lag between 'NDA submission' and 'Approval'.

FDA approves Retatrutide this year? - AI Odds Analysis

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