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YesNo
AI Insights:
03.05 14:31 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although legislative efforts to 'End the Fed' (e.g., H.R. 1846) have existed since March 2025, they have made no substantive progress in Congress as of March 5, 2026, languishing in committee. Conversely, the Trump administration formally nominated Kevin Warsh in Jan 2026 to succeed Powell as Chair in May, and the Senate is advancing housing legislation that regulates (but assumes the existence of) the Fed via CBDC bans. The political reality confirms a strategy of 'leadership replacement' rather than 'institutional abolition,' making the probability of the Fed being abolished before the end of 2026 effectively zero.
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Exotics
Abolishing the central bank is an extreme macroeconomic event. While discussed in fringe political circles (e.g., libertarians or some crypto proponents), it is highly unlikely in the mainstream political agenda, classifying it as a highly unconventional 'black swan' hypothesis.
Hedging
DXY
Gold
BTC
US 10Y Yield
S&P 500
If the Fed were truly abolished, it would signify a total collapse or reconstruction of the modern financial system. This would cause extreme volatility (potential collapse or hyperinflation) in the Dollar (DXY) and US Treasury yields, expose traditional assets (S&P 500) to massive uncertainty, and likely trigger a historic revaluation for hard money alternatives like Gold and Bitcoin. The impact score is at the maximum level.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The mainstream political and financial consensus (evidenced by the Trump administration's appointees and Congress's legislative agenda) implicitly assumes the Fed's continued operation, placing the actual probability of abolition near 0%. However, the prediction market maintains a ~3.25% price for Option_'Yes', primarily reflecting an ideological premium from the anti-establishment crypto community and hedging against 'Black Swan' tail risks, rather than rational legislative forecasting.
